基于多项Logit模型的牧户生计资本对生计策略选择影响的实证研究

为探究牧户生计资本对生计策略影响,识别牧户生计策略转化的关键生计资本和生计资本指标,以便引导牧民调整生计结构,提高草原治理能力。以内蒙古自治区5种草原类型15个旗（县）848户牧户为样本,运用熵值法评估牧户生计资本,建立多项Logit回归模型,识别影响牧户生计策略转化的关键生计资本。研究区牧户生计资本值为1.428;4类生计策略牧户生计资本存量为纯牧性>牧兼性>兼牧性>非牧性,P< 0.01;5种草原类型牧户生计资本存量为草甸草原>典型草原>荒漠草原>沙地草原>草原化荒漠,P<0.01。牧户以牧业收入和政府转移收入为主,纯牧性生计策略为首选的策略;金融资本存量是影响生计策略转化的关键生计资本,对牧户由纯牧性向牧兼性、兼牧性和非牧性生计策略转化均具有显著负向影响。牧户家庭承包草地资源、使用草地资源和家庭总收入是影响生计策略转化的关键生计资本指标。

Empirical Study on the Choice of Livelihood Strategies Affected by Herdsmen’s Livelihood Capital Based on Multinomial Logit Model

The study aims to explore the impact of herdsmen’s livelihood capital on livelihood strategies, identify the key livelihood capital and livelihood capital indicators in the transformation of herdsmen's livelihood strategies, so as to guide herdsmen to adjust their livelihood structure and improve grassland governance ability. Taking 848 herdsmen in 15 banners (counties) of 5 grassland types in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as samples, this paper evaluates herdsmen’s livelihood capital by using the method of entropy, establishes multiple logit regression models, and identifies the key livelihood capital that affects the transformation of herdsmen’s livelihood strategies. The value of livelihood capital of pastoral households in the study area is 1.428. Four kinds of livelihood strategies are as follows: pure herdsman, facultative herdsman, facultative herdsman and non-herdsman, P<0.01. Five types of grassland herdsman’s livelihood capital stock from high to low are: meadow grassland, typical grassland, desert grassland, sandy grassland, grassland desertification, P<0.01. Pastoral households’ income is mainly transferred by the government, and pure pastoral livelihood strategy is the preferred strategy. Financial capital stock is the key livelihood capital affecting the transformation of livelihood strategy, which has a significant negative impact on the transformation of pastoral households’ livelihood strategy from pure pastoral to pastoral, pastoral and non-pastoral. The key livelihood capital indicators affecting the transformation of livelihood strategies are the household contract of grassland resources, the use of grassland resources and the total household income.