广东省农地边际化特征及其影响因素的地理探测

为了明确经济发达地区广东省农地边际化现象及其主要影响因素。本研究采用“单位成本纯收益指标”、“农地利用集约度指标”和“农作物播种面积指标”三大主要指标,对广东省2000—2015年农地边际化特征进行提取。选择影响农地边际化特征的19个因子,利用地理探测器方法对农地边际化现象的核心影响因素进行挖掘。结果表明：2000—2015年广东省共发生3次比较明显的农地边际化现象,分别在2001—2002年、2005—2006年、2010—2013年,且第3次边际化持续时间最长,情况最严重。社会经济发展水平与结构指标和农户家庭资源要素结构变化指标对农地边际化的影响程度较大,其中第三产业产值比重、农村农户固定资产投资、粮食总播种面积对农地边际化现象有较强的解释力,q值分别为0.8067、0.8055、0.7916。任何两因子相互交互作用都能增强对农地边际化现象的解释力。

Farmland in Guangdong: Marginalization Characteristics and Geographical Detection of the Influencing Factors

To clarify the marginalization of farmland in Guangdong which is a developed area and its main influencing factors, using three major diagnostic indicators of “unit cost net income index”, “agricultural land use intensity index” and “agricultural crop planting area index”, we summarized the marginalization characteristics of farmland in Guangdong from 2000 to 2015, selected 19 factors affecting the marginalization characteristics of farmland, and explored the core influencing factors of farmland marginalization by geo-detector method. The results showed that: there were 3 obvious farmland marginalization in Guangdong from 2000 to 2015, appeared in 2001-2002, 2005-2006 and 2010-2013, respectively, and the third marginalization lasted for the longest time and was the most serious; the level of social and economic development and structural indicators and the indicators of changes in the structure of rural household resource elements had a great impact on the marginalization of farmland, among them, the proportion of tertiary industry value, the fixed assets investment of rural farmers, and the total planting area of grain had a strong explanatory power to the marginalization of farmland, q was 0.8067, 0.8055, 0.7916, respectively. Any interaction between the two factors can enhance the explanatory power of the marginalization of farmland.