山西忻州地区植物物候与气候变化特征分析

摘要：本文利用了忻州市、五台县的气象和物候资料，并运用距平分析法、回归分析法、M-K突变分析法，分析其特征。结果显示，1）忻州、五台两个农业气象站点，年平均气温冷暖交替变化，年降水量逐年减小。2）两个农业气象站的植物，春季物候期均呈提前趋势。秋季物候期表现不一致，忻州市秋季物候期的平均倾向率为1.29d/a,整体趋势表现为推迟；五台县的秋季物候期，因紫丁香提前趋势相对较大，故总体呈提前趋势。3）植物物候期与气温变化的相关性较大，而年降水量对其变化的影响较为微弱。从植物物候期突变时间可看出，其与气温、降水突变时间同步或紧随其后，且对气温的小幅变化反应敏感。

Analysis on the climate and phenophase changes in xinzhou of Shanxi Province.

Based on the meteorological and phenological data in Xinzhou and Wutai stations, their characters were analyzed by using Anomaly analysis, Regression analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation test, which could perfect the mechanism between the climate and phenological changes in Shanxi province. The results showed that the average temperature changed in alternating warm and cold and the annual precipitation decreased year by year in the two stations. The autumn phenophase of the plants represented inconsistent in the two stations, the average rate of autumn phonological plants in Xinzhou station was delayed, but the plants in Wutai was earlier. To the sudden changes of the phenophase, they appeared synchronously or after that in air temperature and precipitation, Which were sensitive to the minor fluctuations of the air temperature. The minor changes in annual average temperature that weren＇ t reached the level of mutation could make the sudden change of the plant phenophases, which could prove that the plant phenophases were the immediate expression of the climate changes.