玉米主产省生产效率测度及影响因素分析——基于DEA-Tobit模型的实证研究

本文通过利用2004—2018年中国20省（直辖市、自治区）玉米投入产出面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist方法,分析研究阶段内中国玉米生产效率的变化、空间差异及玉米生产过程中投入产出冗余情况,同时使用Tobit模型分析影响中国玉米生产效率的主要因素。研究结果表明:技术进步是促进中国玉米全要素生产率增长的主要关键因素,综合技术效率提升较小,其主要依赖于规模效率的增加;中国玉米生产综合技术效率总体呈现北方春播玉米区>西北灌溉玉米区>黄淮海夏播玉米区>西南山地玉米区;其中山西省、辽宁省、山东省、湖北省、云南省、陕西省、甘肃省均存在产出不足或投入冗余现象;农业机械总动力、受灾面积及地区差异对玉米生产技术效率影响显著。基于研究结论,提出3点建议,第一培育新型技术人才,加强玉米发展动力;第二改善基础设施建设,减缓自然灾害冲击;第三落实结构调整政策,开展规模适度经营。

Measure of Production Efficiency and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Main Maize Producing Provinces:An Empirical Study Based on DEA-Tobit Model

By using maize input-output panel data from China’s 20 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in 2004 - 2018 and using DEA-Malmquist method, this paper analyzed the change of the efficiency of maize production and spatial differences in China and maize input-output redundancy in production within the study phase. At the same time, this paper used Tobit model to analyze the main factors that influencing the efficiency of maize production in China. The results show that technological progress is the main key factor to promote the growth of total factor productivity of maize in China, and the result of improvement of comprehensive technical efficiency is not obvious, which mainly depends on the increase of scale efficiency. Overall, the order of China’s maize production comprehensive technical efficiency from high to low is: the northern spring planting maize area > northwest irrigated maize area > yellow Huaihai summer planting maize area > southwest mountain maize area. In Shanxi, Liaoning, Shandong, Hubei, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Gansu Province, there is insufficient output or redundant input. The total power of agricultural machinery, the damage area and the regional difference have significant influence on the technical efficiency of maize production. Based on the research conclusions, three suggestions are put forward, first, cultivating new technical talents and strengthening the development power of maize; second, improving infrastructure to mitigate the impact of natural disasters; third, implementing structural adjustment policy and carrying out scale moderate management.