昌吉地区作物生长季潜在蒸散量变化特征及影响因子

本文探究昌吉地区1963—2020年作物生长季蒸散量变化特征,为该地区水资源优化管理、作物合理布局、农业灌溉规划以及水资源开发利用提供依据。根据昌吉地区8个气象站点1963—2020年的气象数据,采用Thornthwaite法、气候倾向法、M-K检验法、小波分析法分析潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征,结合相关分析探讨气候因子对其影响。结果表明：（1）在时间尺度上,昌吉地区作物生长季潜在蒸散量增加趋势显著,变化率为2.3 mm/10 a,多年平均值为876 mm;8个气象站点潜在蒸散量都呈现增加趋势;（2）在空间尺度上,昌吉地区作物生长季内潜在蒸散量由西向东呈递减趋势。整体呈先减少后增加的变化趋势;（3）西部在2009年、中部在1994年、东部在2013年发生突变,昌吉地区突变发生在1997年,中部和昌吉地区突变早于西部和东部;周期变化显示,昌吉地区作物生长季潜在蒸散量有3.7~4.2年变化周期;（4）影响昌吉地区作物生长季潜在蒸散量主要因素是气温,其中最低气温逐年升高导致潜在蒸散量逐年增加的贡献最大,其他气候因子的变化对潜在蒸散量起着削弱作用。

Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Crop Potential Evapotranspiration During Growing Season in Changji

This paper explored the variation characteristics of evapotranspiration during the growing season in Changji from 1963 to 2020, aiming to provide a basis for the optimal management of water resources, rational crop planting distribution, agricultural irrigation planning and the development and utilization of water resources. Based on the meteorological data of eight meteorological stations in Changji from 1963 to 2020, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration were analyzed by Thornthwaite method, climate trend method, M-K test method and wavelet analysis method, and the influence of climate factors on the potential evapotranspiration was discussed by correlation analysis. The results showed that: (1) on the time scale, the potential evapotranspiration in the growing season increased significantly with a change rate of 2.3 mm/10 a and an average annual value of 876 mm; the potential evapotranspiration of 8 meteorological stations showed increasing trends; (2) on the spatial scale, the potential evapotranspiration decreased from west to east in the growing season of crops, as a whole, it showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing; (3) the mutation occurred in 2009 in the western region, in 1994 in the central region, and in 2013 in the eastern region; the mutation occurred in 1997 in Changji, and the mutation in the central-eastern region was earlier than that in the western-eastern region; the periodic variation showed that the potential evapotranspiration in the growing season of crops had a period of 3.7-4.2 year; (4) temperature was the main factor affecting the potential evapotranspiration in the growing season, and the minimum temperature contributed the most to the increase of the potential evapotranspiration year by year, while the change of other climate factors weakened the potential evapotranspiration.