四川省攀枝花市烟农种植意愿及影响因素分析

为稳定烟农队伍,引导烟农高质量生产,促进烟草行业的可持续发展,运用二元Logistic模型和攀枝花市3个烤烟主产区242户烟农的调查数据,分析农户种植烟草的意愿及其影响因素。结果表明,户主的年龄及参加农业专业知识培训的经历对烟农种植意愿具有正向的显著性影响,农户是否兼业、农户的家庭人口数量及非烟作物收入对烟农种植意愿具有负向的显著性影响。由此建议加强专业知识培训、引导烟农专业化生产、优化农村农业从业人口结构,这将有利于正向强化烟农生产积极性,进而通过种植经济作物达到农民收入持续增长、地区农业稳步发展的效果。

The Planting Intention and Influencing Factors of Tobacco Farmers in Panzhihua City,Sichuan Province

To stabilize the tobacco farmers’ team, guide the high-quality production of tobacco and promote the sustainable development of tobacco industry, the willingness of farmers to grow tobacco and its influencing factors were analyzed by using the two-factor Logistic model and the survey data of 242 tobacco farmers in three main flue-cured tobacco producing areas in Panzhihua City. The results show that the age of household head and the experience of participating in agricultural professional knowledge training have a positive and significant effect on tobacco farmers’ planting willingness, while whether farmers have concurrent employment, household size and income of non-tobacco crops have a negative and significant effect on tobacco farmers' planting willingness. It is suggested to strengthen the professional knowledge training, guide the specialized production of tobacco and optimize the rural agricultural population structure, which will be beneficial to positively motivating the enthusiasm of tobacco farmers in production, and then achieve the effect of continuous increase of farmers’ income and steady development of regional agriculture through planting cash crops.