危险性入侵昆虫梣粉虱对我国的风险分析

梣粉虱是一种为害果树和园林植物的危险性入侵害虫，可造成严重的经济损失。为探明梣粉虱对我国的风险性，本文从该虫生物学特性、分布情况及寄主条件等为基础，依据有害生物分析准则，分析了该虫在我国定殖和扩散的可能性，利用MaxEnt生态位模型预测了其在我国的潜在适生区。结果表明：梣粉虱传入我国并在中东部定殖的风险性极高，高风险区包括江苏、安徽、湖北、湖南、重庆、等省份；上述地区应加强梣粉虱的检疫工作，实行严格的风险管理。

Risk Analysis of Siphoninus phillyreae (Haliday): A Dangerous Exotic Pest in China

Siphoninus phillyreae (Haliday) is one of the most important pests infesting fruit trees and garden plants worldwide, which may leads to severe economic loss. To study its risk to China, the authors analyzed its possibility of colonization and diffusion based on its biological characteristics, distribution and host condition and the analysis criterion of pest, MaxEnt ecological niche model was used to predict geographic distribution of S.phillyreae in China. The results showed that the potential geographic distribution of S.phillyreae was expected to be constricted in the middle and east areas of China, such as Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Chongqing. Consequently, strong quarantine program and strict risk management were needed at these areas to prevent the pest from being introduced to China.