基于主成分分析的湖北省洪涝灾害风险评估模型构建

湖北省历年由洪涝灾害造成农作物受损严重,对湖北省进行洪涝风险评估十分必要。本文提出了一种定量化风险评估的模型建立方法,通过多源数据（气象、社会经济、地理特征等数据）提取到15个指标,采取主成分分析法确定各因子对于洪涝灾害的影响权重,建立风险评估模型,并运用地理信息系统(GIS)分析技术得出洪涝灾害风险区划图。在现有评估指标体系的基础上,通过网络爬虫方式获取更能反映防减灾能力的灾害应急指标;采用主成分分析方法降低模型建立中的主观因素。结果表明：（1）通过模型得到降雨与地势为湖北省洪灾发生的最主要因素;（2）湖北省中东部地区多为高风险区,其中东部武汉、黄石等长江干流途经地区处于重风险区;西南部多为中风险区,西北部在全省为低风险区。综上,该模型可为湖北省开展综合减灾、调整区域可持续发展结构、进行准确农情监测提供科学支撑和决策依据,具有重要的科学和实践意义。

Construction of Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Model Based on Principal Component Analysis in Hubei Province

Over the years, floods have caused serious damage to crops in Hubei Province, restricting agricultural economy and threatening social development. It is necessary to carry out flood risk assessment in Hubei. This paper proposed a method of modeling quantitative risk assessment in Hubei Province. Fifteen indicators were extracted from multi-source data (meteorological, socio-economic, geographical characteristics and other data), and the principal component analysis method was adopted to determine the weight of each indicator on flood disaster to establish a risk assessment model, and the geographic information system (GIS) analysis technology was used to get the flood disaster risk zoning map. On the basis of the existing evaluation index system, through the way of web crawler, we obtained better disaster emergency indicators to reflect the ability of prevention and reduction, and used the principal component analysis method to reduce the subjective factors in model building. The results show that: (1) rainfall and topography are the most important factors of flood occurrence in Hubei; (2) most of the central and eastern parts of Hubei are high-risk areas, among which, Wuhan, Huangshi and other parts along the Yangtze River basin in the east are in a heavy risk area; the southwest of the province is mostly in a medium risk area, and the northwest is in a low risk area. In conclusion, this model could provide scientific support and a decision-making basis for carrying out comprehensive disaster reduction, adjusting regional sustainable development structure and monitoring agricultural production in Hubei Province, which has great scientific and practical significance.