2007—2016年北京市大宗淡水鱼类价格波动分析

为准确把握水产品市场形势，监测产业发展动态，指导渔民有效生产，本研究以北京市场2007年6月至2016年12月大宗淡水鱼平均月度价格为研究对象，开展价格变动规律分析，并采用X12季节调整法和HP滤波法对价格波动特点和周期进行了实证分析。结果表明，北京市大宗淡水鱼类价格呈现周期性波动上升趋势，受市场及生产等偶然因素影响，部分年度价格波动剧烈；年内市场价格具有明显的季节性特征，受节假日因素影响不明显；鲢鱼价格在大宗淡水鱼中一直处于低位，鳙鱼价格大多高于其他品种；大宗淡水鱼类的价格波动周期与生产周期密切相关，大致为10个月。基于上述结论，建议渔民逐步实现水产品的分散上市，降低生产方式对价格波动的影响，平稳有序开展渔业生产。

Staple Freshwater Fishes: Price Fluctuations in Beijing from 2007 to 2016

The paper aims to master the market situation of aquatic products, monitor aquatic industry development and guide the fishermen to produce effectively, we took the average monthly price of staple freshwater fish from June 2007 to December 2016 from Beijing market as the object for the research, and analyzed the price fluctuations rules; besides that, X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method were used for the empirical analysis of price fluctuation characteristics and fluctuation cycle. The results showed that: the price was in an upward trend of cycle fluctuation, part of which were in severe fluctuation because of the accidental factors such as market and production; the price also had significantly seasonal characteristics, but was not sensitive to the holidays and festivals; the price of silver carp was lower and the bighead carp was higher than that of the other breeds in each year; the price fluctuation cycle was closely related to the production cycle, which was about 10 months. Based on the above research conclusion, it is suggested that the aquatic products should be supplied in market in a disperse way to reduce the impact of production mode on the price fluctuation, and promote the aquatic production in a smooth way.