干旱绿洲农业区社会-经济-自然复合生态系统可持续发展综合评价

为了配合石羊河流域治理规划，确切分析绿洲农业区的可持续发展状况，本研究基于层次分析法基本原则，在征求专家意见的基础上构建了干旱绿洲农业医社会-经济-自然复合生态系统可持续发展评价指标体系，并通过评价模型构建对典型干旱绿洲农业区武威市1957-2008年的生态系统可持续发展进行评价研究。结果表明：（1）1957-2008年，研究区资源环境指数随时间变化呈波动下降趋势，而经济发展和社会人文指数随时间均呈波动增长的趋势；（2）武威地区可持续发展综合指数呈波动上升趋势，经历了极弱可持续发展阶段、弱可持续发展阶段和中等可持续发展阶段。但综合来看，区域可持续发展的水平还较低，区域生态经济的发展是建立在消耗自然资源基础之上。

Comprehensive Evaluation on Sustainable Development of Social-Economic-Natural Complex Ecosystem System in Agriculture Area in Arid Oasis

In order to meet the management plan of Shiyang river basin and analyze the sustainable development status of agriculture area in arid oasis, the sustainable development evaluation index system of social-economic-natural complex ecosystem in agriculture area in arid oasis was constructed on the basis of expert opinion. Based on evaluation model, the sustainable development from 1957 to 2008 of the ecosystem of Wuwei, which was the typical arid oasis agricultural areas, was studied. The results showed that: (1) from 1957 to 2008, resources and environment index of the study area decreased volatility. Economic development and social index showed a growth trend of fluctuations with time change. (2) Composite index of sustainable development in Wuwei was raised volatility, and experienced very weak sustainable development stages, weak sustainable development stage and the middle stage of sustainable development. Overall, regional sustainable development was still in low level, regional ecological economic development mainly built on the consumption of natural resources.