原阳县近40年气温、蒸发量变化和突变分析

为了掌握在气候变暖背景下原阳县气温及蒸发量近年的变化情况，利用原阳县气象局1971—2009年的逐月20cm蒸发皿蒸发量、月平均气温的实测资料，分析原阳县蒸发量和气温的时间变化特征。结果表明：（1）气温整体呈上升趋势，1971-2009年近40年间平均气温上升了约0．4℃。20世纪70年代缓慢上升，80年代转为下降趋势，90年代以后升温趋势加快。季节上，春季、秋季和冬季的气温变化倾向率都为正值，分别为0．51、0．10、0．34℃／10a。冬季增温最为明显，春季次之，但是夏季的变化倾向率为负值（-0．09℃／10a）。（2）年蒸发量呈下降趋势，气候变化倾向率为．153．4mm／10a。其中，20世纪70年代缓慢下降，80年代下降趋势明显，90年代以后呈波动上升，自2001年又呈现出下降趋势。分析季节变化可以看出：以春季和夏季下降趋势最为显著，气候倾向率分别为53．9和56．7mm／10a，秋季、冬季不太明显。采用累积距平对年平均气温和年蒸发量进行突变分析，发现1983年、1993年为气温突变年。其中，1993年突变最为显著，有偏冷期转为偏暖期。1986年为蒸发量突变年份，蒸发量由偏多期转为偏少期。

Variation and Abrupt Change of the Temperature and Evaporation in Yuanyang County Nearly 40 Years

In order to control under the background of climate warming changes in air temperature and evaporation in Yuanyang County Meteorological Bureau, the 1971 monthly in 2009 20 cm pan evaporation, the monthly mean temperature data, the author analyzed the amount of time and temperature in Yuanyang County evaporation variation. The results showed that： （1） the temperature the overall upward trend, from 1971 to 2009 during the last 40 years the average temperature had increased by about 0.4℃. 1970s slowly rising, 1980s into decline, 1990s after the warming trended to accelerate. On the season, spring, autumn and winter temperature change tendency rate was positive, respectively was 0.51℃/10 a, 0.10℃/10 a, 0.34℃/10 a. Winter warming was most obvious, in spring, but the tendency of summer rate was negative （-0.09℃/10 a）. （2） The annual evaporation decreased, climate tendency rate was- 153.4 mm/10 a. Among them, slowly decreased 1970s, 1980s decreased obviously, after 1990s rose, since 2001, also showing a downward trend. Analysis of seasonal changes could be seen： in spring and summer down trend was most obvious, climate tendency rate were 53.9 mm/10 a and 56.7 mm/10 a, autumn, winter was not too obvious. The cumulative anomaly of annual mean temperature and annual evaporation mutation analysis, discovered in 1983, 1993 as the temperature mutation. Among them, the 1993 mutation was the most significant, the cold period to warm period. 1986 was for evaporation mutation, evaporation from partial multi period to less periods.