APSIM玉米模型在东北地区的适应性

利用东北地区6个典型农业气象试验站的玉米田间试验数据和同期逐日气象数据对APSIM模型(农业生产系统模型)在东北玉米产区的适应性进行了初步研究。先依据各站第一组玉米试验数据对模型相关参数进行调试、确定，再利用另一组试验数据检验模型模拟玉米生育期、叶面积指数、地上部总生物量和产量的可靠性。结果表明，APSIM模型模拟的播种至出苗、开花和成熟各阶段天数与实测天数有较好的一致性，其误差分别为0~2.0、0.7~2.0和0.7~2.3 d；哈尔滨地区模拟的叶面积指数和地上部总生物量相对均方根差分别为33%和11%，模拟效果较好；黑龙江哈尔滨、海伦、泰来，吉林桦甸、通化和辽宁本溪的模拟产量与实际产量的NRMSE分别为18%、13%、4%、4%、5%和2%。说明APSIM模型对东北地区玉米生育期、叶面积指数动态变化过程、地上部总生物量动态变化过程和最终产量具有较好的模拟结果，验证后的APSIM模型在东北地区具有较好的适应性。以上结果为今后在东北地区深入开展玉米生产潜力以及解析产量形成的限制因素等研究提供了技术平台与支撑。

Adaptability of APSIM Maize Model in Northeast China

The APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model was introduced to simulate maize growth, development and yields in Northeast China using the field experimental data and climate data collected from six typical agricultural meteorological stations in the studied area. APSIM was calibrated using the first part of data to determine the varietal parameters, then simulated the growing periods, leaf area index (LAI), total above-ground biomass and yields using the second part of data at each site. The results showed that there was a good agreement between the simulated and measured values in growing periods. The difference of growing periods from sowing to emergence, from sowing to flowering and from sowing to maturity between simulated and measured data was 0–2.0, 0.7–2.0, and 0.7–2.3 d, respectively. The Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) values for measured and simulated LAI and total above-ground biomass in Harbin station were 33% and 11%, respectively. NRMSE values for measured and simulated yield in Harbin, Hailun, Tailai, Huadian, Tonghua, and Benxi station were 18%, 13%, 4%, 4%, 5%, and 2%, respectively. These re-sults indicated that APSIM model has good ability to simulate the growing periods, dynamic process of LAI, dynamic process of above-ground biomass and yield of maize in Northeast China. This research supports the model application in Northeast China, such as simulating maize potential yield, or prescribing yield limiting factors.