基于马尔可夫链的耕地人口承载潜力分析

耕地的人口承载潜力成为当前研究的热点。本文结合耕地粮食单产和人口之间的关系,提出了每千人粮食单产量来反映耕地的人口承载潜力,将历年千人粮食单产量分成5个等级来反映耕地的人口承载力的年景状况。然后采用规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,运用加权马尔科夫链预测未来耕地人口承载潜力状况。本文以三峡库区开县1960￣2004年的粮食产量、耕地面积、人口数量作为基础数据,结合当地农民生活水平的考察数据,运用加权马尔科夫链进行分析和预测,得到了较为满意的结果;同时也表明了加权马尔科夫链在耕地人口承载潜力应用上的科学性与可行性。

Analyses on Cultivated Land Population Carrying Capacity Based on Weighted Markov Chain

At present the research of cultivated land population carrying capacity is the hot point.This paper bases on the relationship of population and cultivated land food occupation per hectare and proposes the concept of food occupation per hectare per 1000 person to reflect the cultivated land population carrying capacity,the numbers of food occupation per hectare per 1000 person of all researching years were divided into 5 scales to represent the yearly situation of cultivated land population carrying capacity.Then the standardized self-coefficients were used as weights,and the weighted Markov chain is used to analyze and predict the future cultivated land population carrying capacity.Kai County of reservoir area of Three Gorges Project was taken as the example,the datum of food production,cultivated land areas and population quantities in 1960-2004 were used.In the same time,the living situation of the local area was referred,then the weighted Markov chain was used.Meanwhile,this paper proved that it is scientific and feasible to use the weighted Markov chain to analyze the cultivated land population carrying capacity.