基于灰色理论与回归模型的土壤类型预测研究

土壤的类型在一定程度上影响着土地的利用方式,而不同的土地利用方式又会促使土壤类型发生波动。为研究未来土壤多样性指数的动态变化,采用灰色关联模型分析1985-2013年阜新市土地利用对土壤多样性的影响,并利用多元线性回归模型对未来土壤多样性进行预测。研究表明:城镇用地、农用地、林地、水域、其他类型用地这5个因素是土壤多样性波动的主导因素。然后在灰色关联分析的基础上,根据2015年土地利用类型所占面积比例,利用所建立的多元线性回归方程对2015年阜新市土壤多样性指数进行预测和检测,最后,将此应用于根据土地利用类型对未来阜新市土壤多样性的预测,并提出相应的合理化建议。

Prediction of Soil Types Based on Grey Theory and Regression Model

Soil type affects the utilization of land in a certain extent,in turn,the patterns of land use results in the variation in soil type.To study the dynamics of soil diversity index,grey correlation model was used to analyze the influence of land use on soil diversity in Fuxin area in 1985-2013,and multiple linear regression model was used to predict soil biodiversity in future.Results showed that the five factors of urban land,agricultural land,forest land,waters and other types of land use dominated the variation in soil biodiversity.Based on the grey correlation analysis,multiple linear regression equation was established to predict soil diversity index according to the area proportion of land use in Fuxin in 2015.Finally,it was applied to predict soil diversity in future according to land use types in Fuxin and put forward the corresponding rationalization proposal.