WOFOST模型的发展及应用

作物生长模拟模型已经成为一门新兴的科学,可以为农业资源的管理利用、农业最大收益的获取提供科学的依据。WOFOST(W orld Food Stud ies)模型是荷兰瓦根宁农业大学和世界粮食研究中心共同开发研制的,是模拟特定的土壤和气候条件下一年生作物生长的动态的、解释性模型。WOFOST模型已经在欧洲、非洲以及亚洲的一些地区得到了运用和验证,可用于水稻、玉米、小麦等多种一年生作物的模拟。WOFOST模型可用来分析作物产量风险,不同年份产量的变化,土壤类型及气候变化对产量变化的影响;确定播种策略以及农业机械使用的关键时期;该模型还可用于估计某种作物最大潜在产量,提高灌溉和施肥的增产效益,对生长在不利条件以及地区的作物产量进行预测等。该模型对可持续农业的发展具有积极的指导作用。

Development of WOFOST(World Food Studies)and its Application

Crop growth simulation model is an effective tool for providing decision on agricultural resource management.WOFOST(World Food Studies) was established on the framework of interdisciplinary studies by the Center for World Food Studies in cooperation with the Wageningen Agricultural University.WOFOST estimates the growth of an annual crop given a set of specific soil and weather conditions.The simulation of crop growth is based on physiological processes.Current literatures revealed that WOFOST could be applied in wide zone,including Europe,Africa,Asia.etc.many annual crops have been simulated well,such as rice and maiz.WOFOST has been applied as a tool for the analysis of yield risk, yield variability over soil types,sowing strategies,effects of climate change,critical periods for use of agricultural machinery,and so on.The model has also been used for predicitive purposes,such as regional assessments of crop yield potential in the form of maximum yield levels,estimation of maximum benefits from irrigation or from fertilizer use,detection of adverse growing conditions by simulation-monitoring the agricultural season,and regional yield forecasts as well.