基于熵权物元模型的沂蒙山区土地生态安全动态变化及其影响因素研究

采用“经济－环境－社会（EES）”模式建立指标体系，运用熵权物元方法构建土地生态安全评判模型，对沂蒙山区土地生态安全的时空变化及其影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明:（1）从时间变化上来看，1995、2000和2005年沂蒙山区土地生态安全为Ⅳ级，2010和2015年该地区土地生态安全为Ⅲ级，呈现逐步提高的态势，高土地生态安全水平的县域数量增加，低土地生态安全水平的县域数量减少；（2）从空间变化上来看，除个别县域出现了小幅波动现象外，沂蒙山区县域土地生态安全水平呈现逐渐改善的趋势，但各县域的提升速度并不一致，绝对差异波动上升，相对差异波动下降，县域土地生态安全的空间分布不均衡，西部强于东部，南部高于北部，但东部地区的提升速度快于西部地区；（3）森林覆盖率等10项指标对沂蒙山区土地生态安全水平的提升有重要贡献，人口自然增长率等5项指标对土地生态安全水平变化的影响较小，而GDP增长率等5项指标是制约土地生态安全水平提高的主要因素。熵权物元模型对土地生态安全评价具有实际应用价值和可操作性。

Evaluation of Land Ecological Security and Influencing Factors in Yimeng Mountain Area Based on Entropy Weight Matter Element Model

An index system was established by using the economy-environment–society (EES) model, and an evaluation model of land ecological security was established by using the matter element method of entropy weight. The temporal and spatial changes of land ecological security and its influencing factors in the Yimeng Mountain area were studied. The results showed that: (1) From the perspective of time change, the land ecological security in the Yimeng Mountain area in 1995, 2000 and 2005 was at grade IV, and that in 2010 and 2015 was at grade III, showing a gradually improved trend. The number of counties at a high level of land ecological security was increased, while that at a low level of land ecological security was decreased. (2) From the view of spatial change, except for small fluctuations in individual counties, the level of land ecological security in the Yimeng Mountain area showed a gradually improved trend, while the speed of promotion was different among counties, the absolute difference fluctuated upward, and the relative difference fluctuated downward. The spatial distribution of county land ecological security was uneven. The county land ecological security was stronger in the western region than that in the eastern region, and was higher in the southern region than that in the northern region. The improvement speed of land ecological security level in the eastern region was faster than that in the western region. (3) Ten indicators, such as forest coverage, had an important contribution to the improvement of land ecological security level in the Yimeng Mountain. Five indicators, such as natural population growth rate, had little influences on the change of land ecological security level. Five indicators, such as GDP growth rate, were the main factors restricting the improvement of land ecological security level. Combination of the entropy weight method and matter element model showed practical value and operability to evaluate land ecological security.