近549年来黄河天然径流量时间变化特征研究

天然径流量是流域气候及下垫面综合作用的结果，同时是流域水资源分配的重要依据。深入探究长时间序列年径流量时间变化特征对流域水资源调控以及水资源可持续利用意义重大。基于黄河1470—2018年长时间序列天然径流量数据，综合采用EMD经验模态分解法、滑动平均法以及距平累积法揭示黄河549年间天然径流量的年际变化与周期变化特征。结果表明，黄河年天然径流量变化过程具有显著的随机特征，随年份不同呈现波动性变化，5%及95%频率的年天然径流量分别为337.0亿m³和681.0亿m³。采用距平累积法可将黄河近549年天然径流序列以1825年为界分为2个时期；黄河年天然径流量以2.8年变化周期最为显著，其次为23.8年、47.3年、5.6年、11.3年周期规律，出现该周期性规律主要是由于太阳黑子活动、厄尔尼诺现象以及地极移动振幅变化因子的影响。

Variations of Natural Runoff in the Yellow River Since 1470

Natural runoff reflects the effects of climate change and land surface variation, which is important for water resources allocation in the basin. Further understanding long-term variations in natural runoff is of great significance in water resources management. This study applied the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), moving average method and anomalous accumulation method to reveal the temporal and periodical changes in natural runoff with long-term data from 1470 to 2018 in the Yellow River basin. The results showed that annual natural runoff had a significant random characteristic, showing wet-dry fluctuations within different periods. The annual natural runoff at 5% and 95% frequency were 33.70 billion m³ and 68.10 billion m³, respectively. The natural runoff of the Yellow River could be divided into two periods by the year of 1825. The EMD method showed that the natural runoff had a significant periodical cycle of 2.8 years, followed by 23.8 years, 47.3 years, 5.6 years and 11.3 years. The periodic feature was mainly influenced by the Sunspot activity, El Niño phenomenon and the amplitude changes factor of earth pole movement.