江苏省区域农业生态环境质量的时空变异分析

运用主成分分析方法筛选农业生态环境质量的评价指标体系,建立农业生态环境质量综合评价模型,对1995年、2005年、2008年江苏省徐连、沿江、沿海、宁镇扬和太湖经济区的农业生态环境质量的时空变异进行评价。结果表明:(1)在空间上,5个经济区的农业生态环境质量指数从北向南呈明显的下降趋势,以徐连经济区最高,沿江、沿海和宁镇扬经济区次之,太湖经济区最低。随时间的推移,各经济区的农业生态环境质量评价指数均呈明显的下降趋势。(2)针对农业生态环境质量变化最大的徐连、太湖经济区,分别选取代表性县(市)区域(前者选取邳州和新沂,后者选取张家港和江阴),分析2个经济区及其代表县市1999-2008年间的农业生态环境质量动态变化,发现在1999-2008年期间,徐连经济区的农业生态环境质量状况明显好于太湖经济区,但2个经济区的生态环境质量均有不同程度的下降。4个县(市)中,新沂市1999-2003年农业生态环境质量长期处于良好水平;邳州市生态环境质量指数降低速度最快,从最初的良好状况逐渐降低到一般状况,并且一直处于恶化发展的态势;江阴和张家港两市的农业生态环境质量状况明显劣于邳州和新沂,且长期维持在一般水平,波动幅度较小。因此,即使是位于同一经济区的县(市),其农业生态环境质量也会因区域的不同而有所差异,因此,在关注各经济区农业生态环境质量状况的同时还需考虑不同县(市)的具体状况,因地制宜地制定对策。

Temporal and Spatial Change on Eco-environmental Quality of Regional Agriculture in Jiangsu Province

The reasonable of evaluation index system was analyzed using the principal component analysis,and the models for assessing the agricultural and eco-environmental quality were established,in order to assess the spatial and temporal variability of agricultural and eco-environmental quality about different economic zone in Jiangsu province.The results indicated that:(1)The agricultural and eco-environmental quality index of Xulian,Yanhai,Ningzhenyang,Yanjiang and Taihu decreased from north to south of Jiangsu province for 1995,2005 and 2008,and Xulian economic zone was the highest,Yanjiang,Yanhai,Ningzhenyang were the second,Tai lake was the lowest.The indexes of agricultural and eco-environmental qualitities in 5 economic zones decreased obviously as time went by.(2)Taken Xulian and Tai lake economic zone(Pizhou and Xinyi,Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin) which have the highest variations of the agricultural and eco-environmental quality for example,in order to assess the dynamic changes of agricultural and eco-environmental quality.The agricultural and eco-environmental quality of Xulian and Tai lake decreased from 1999 to 2008,and the agricultural eco-environmental quality of Xulian economic zone was much better than that of Tai lake.The agricultural and eco-environmental quality was different between the cities which belong to the same economic zone.The agricultural and eco-environmental quality of Xinyi was kept in good level from 1999 to 2003,and Pizhou had a highest starting point,but reduced rapidly from good condition to general condition,and now even worse.The agricultural and eco-environmental quality of Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin was worse than Pizhou and Xinyi,which always maintains in general level with small fluctuation.So the agricultural and eco-environmental quality will be different in different regions,even in the same economic zone.Adopt the suitable countermeasures about the specific conditions of different cities,when people were concerned about agricultural and eco-environmental quality of all cities.