近50年来塔里木河流域水域环境现状及其驱动力分析

根据塔里木河流域近50 a来的水文、经济资料，运用数理统计方法分析了自然驱动因子和人文驱动因子对塔里木河流域水域环境影响的贡献率。结果显示:塔里木河四源流在过去50 a出山口径流量没有减少，但汇入塔里木河干流的水量从20世纪50年代的50.27亿m³减少到2000年以后的46.05亿m³，并且出现干流断流长度增加、地下水位下降、水质矿化度升高等一系列问题。而导致这种恶化的直接原因是人类活动的干扰，如:耕地面积扩大，不合理的灌溉、垦殖、放牧等。因此，今后塔里木河流域在水资源利用和综合治理中，应特别关注人类活动的影响。

Current Situation of Water Environment in the Tarim River Basin in Recent 50 Years and Its Driving Force Analysis

Based on the hydrological and economic data of the Tarim River in recent 50 years, the contribution rate of nature driving factors and man-made driving factors on the water environment were analyzed in the Tarim river Basin, According to the results, the mountain caliber flows of the four origins of the Tarim River in the past 50 years did not reduce, but the amount of water flowing into the Tarim River mainstream reduced from 5.027×10⁹m³ in 1950s to 4.605×10⁹ m³ after 2000, and a series of environmental problems of the water appeared, such as the increase of the cutoff of the main stream, the decline of the underground water level and the aggravation of the salinity of water. Human activities lead to the deterioration directly, such as the expansion of cultivated fields and irrational irrigation, reclaim and herding, etc. Therefore, more attention should be paid on the influence of human activity in terms of the water utilization and overall control in the Tarim River Basin.