基于CMIP6模式的西南地区旱灾风险未来预估

预估西南地区在全球气候变暖背景下未来的干旱变化趋势，可为西南各区域研究旱灾变化并防范未来旱灾风险提供有效参考。通过评估30个CMIP6模式对西南地区的模拟性能，挑选并计算出由10个模式组成的多模式集合平均数据，基于标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI、地形、人口、GDP和土壤含水量等指标，利用AHP-熵权组合权重法和ArcGIS的空间分析功能来构建包含致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性的旱灾风险评估模型，对西南地区SSP126,SSP245,SSP585三种组合情景下的2021—2040年近期和2041—2060年远期的旱灾风险进行了预估。结果表明：(1)高风险区主要分布在贵州南部、云南东部以及重庆的沙坪坝、四川的温江、越西等零星地区；(2)低风险区主要分布在四川东部和相邻的重庆西部等地区，大致呈南北递减的变化趋势；(3)从近期到远期，未来3种情景组合都表现出次高和高风险区范围增大，次低和低风险区范围减少的形势。综上，全球气候变暖背景下，西南地区未来的旱灾风险整体将有加大加重的趋势，尤其是低纬度地区未来的风险性将明显加重。

Future Projection of Drought Risk in Southwestern China Based on CMIP6 Model

Predicting the future drought trend in southwest China under the background of global warming can provide an effective reference for southwest regions to study drought changes and prevent future drought risks. By evaluating the simulation performance of 30 CMIP6 models in southwest China, the multi-model ensemble average data composed of 10 models were selected and calculated, then based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index SPEI, topography, population, GDP and soil water content, and the AHP-entropy weighting combined weighting method and the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS were used to construct a drought risk assessment model containing the hazard of disaster factors and the vulnerability of disaster bearers. The drought risk in the near term from 2021 to 2040 and the long term from 2041 to 2060 under the combination scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 in southwest China were estimated. The results showed that:(1)the high-risk areas in the future comprehensive projection of drought risk in southwestern China mainly distributed in southern Guizhou Province, eastern Yunnan Province, and scattered areas such as Shapingba in Chongqing, Wenjiang and Yuexi in Sichuan Province;(2)the low-risk areas mainly distributed in eastern Sichuan and adjacent western Chongqing, and generally showed a north-south decreasing trend;(3)from the near term to the long term, the next three scenario combinations all showed an increase in the range of the sub-high and high risk areas, and a decrease in the scope of the sub-low and low risk areas. In summary, under the background of global warming, the future drought risk in southwestern China will increase overall, especially in low-latitude areas.