合肥市资源环境承载力与经济发展水平耦合关系的时空演变分析及障碍因素诊断

目的]探究资源环境承载力和经济发展水平关系的时空演变特征和障碍因素的识别,对区域生态文明建设和可持续协调发展具有重要理论意义。方法]以合肥市为研究对象,构建合肥市资源环境承载力和经济发展水平指标体系,利用状态空间法模型、耦合模型、障碍度模型等方法,测算分析了合肥市2011—2020年资源环境承载力与经济发展水平之间的耦合协调程度及演变过程并识别了制约两者的障碍因素。结果]合肥市资源环境承载力和经济发展水平指数值均呈现上升趋势,资源环境承载力和经济发展水平不断增强。2011—2020年资源环境承载力和经济发展水平耦合度数值在0.48～0.50之间,类型属拮抗状态,耦合协调度水平处于0.42～0.65之间,呈现上升趋势,经历了从轻度失调到低水平协调再到良好协调发展的过程。从障碍因素识别来看,制约合肥市资源环境承载力的障碍因素主要来自要素层环境容量要素,制约合肥市经济发展水平的障碍因素主要来源于经济实力和经济结构要素,这三个要素也是制约资源环境与经济协调发展的关键所在。结论]通过对资源环境承载力和经济发展水平之间关系的研究及其障碍因素的准确识别,增添了合肥市资源环境与经济协调发展的理论支撑。

Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of the Coupling Relationship Between Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity and Economic Development Level in Hefei City

Objective]Exploring the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the relationship between the carrying capacity of resources and the environment and the level of economic development and the identification of obstacles has important theoretical significance for the construction of regional ecological civilization and sustainable coordinated development. Methods] This study took Hefei City as the research object, and an index system of Hefei City's resource and environmental carrying capacity and economic development level was constructed. State space method model, coupling model, obstacle degree model and other methods, the coupling coordination degree and evolution process between resource and environmental carrying capacity and economic development level in Hefei City from 2011 to 2020 were calculated and analyzed, and the obstacle factors restricting both were identified. Results] The index values of Hefei's resource and environmental carrying capacity and economic development level both showed an upward trend, and the resource and environmental carrying capacity and economic development level continued to increase. From 2011 to 2020, the coupling degree between resource and environmental carrying capacity and economic development level was between 0.48 and 0.50, and the type was antagonistic. The level of coupling coordination was between 0.42 and 0.65, showing an upward trend, and had experienced a process of development from mild imbalance to low level coordination and then to good coordination. From the point of view of the identification of obstacles, the obstacle factors restricting the resource and environmental carrying capacity of Hefei mainly came from the environmental capacity factors of the element layer, the obstacles to the economic development level of Hefei mainly came from economic strength and economic structural elements. These three elements were also the key to restricting the coordinated development of resources, environment and economy. Conclusions] The study of the relationship between the carrying capacity of resources and the environment and the level of economic development and the accurate identification of the obstacle factors can supply the theoretical support for the coordinated development of resources, environment and economy in Hefei City.