基于生态系统服务的景观生态风险评价及其驱动因素研究——以福建省为例

景观生态风险评价是实现景观格局优化的前提与基础,对于推动景观生态管理、生态文明建设具有重要意义。为提高景观生态风险评价的准确性和全面性,基于生态系统服务改进景观生态风险的评价方法,评价并分析了福建省2000—2020年景观生态风险的时空演变特征,并采用探索性回归分析与地理加权回归模型,探究了景观生态风险时空演变的主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年福建省景观干扰度逐渐增强,总体呈现“西北低东南高”“大集聚、小分散”的空间分布特征。2000—2020年福建省景观脆弱度整体呈波动下降趋势,而西南部则呈增加的趋势。(2)2000—2020年福建省景观生态风险指数均值由2000年的0.042增长至2020年的0.049,增加了16.7%。至2020年,较高、高风险区面积增长1.8倍,并由东部及东南沿海地区逐渐向内陆扩张; 低风险区则减少至2000年的90%,主要分布在中北、中东部及其周围地带。(3)GDP、常住人口及年均降水量对福建省景观生态风险解释能力最强,对景观生态风险的影响存在空间异质性。GDP、常住人口对福建省景观生态风险具有正向驱动作用,年均降水量则起抑制作用。为此,优化城市经济发展模式、控制常住人口规模是福建省景观生态风险管理与优化的关键。

Research on Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Driving Factors Based on Ecosystem Services

Landscape ecological risk assessment is the prerequisite and basis for realising the optimisation of landscape patterns, which is of great significance for promoting landscape ecological management and ecological civilisation construction. In this study, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the landscape ecological risk in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2020 were evaluated and analysed based on the ecosystem services to improve the landscape ecological risk assessment method. Using the exploratory regression analysis and geographically weighted regression model, the main driving factors of the spatio-temporal evolution of landscape ecological risk were identified. The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020, the degree of landscape disturbance in Fujian Province had gradually increased. Overall, it presented the spatial distribution characteristics of ‘low in northwest and high in southeast'‘large agglomeration, small dispersion'. From 2000 to 2020, the overall landscape vulnerability in Fujian Province showed a fluctuating downward trend, while the southwestern region showed an increasing trend.(2)From 2000 to 2020, the overall landscape ecological risk in Fujian Province was on the rise. The average value of the landscape ecological risk index had increased from 0.042 in 2000 to 0.049 in 2020, i. e., with an increase of 16.7%, showing obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity. By 2020, the area of higher-level and highest-level risk areas increased 1.8 fold and gradually expanded from the eastern and southeast coastal areas to the inland. The low-level risk areas were reduced to 90% of 2000, mainly distributed in the central northern, central eastern and surrounding areas.(3)GDP, the permanent population, and annual average precipitation were the main driving factors behind the landscape ecological risks in Fujian Province, and the impact of various driving factors on landscape ecological risks was spatially heterogeneous. GDP and the permanent population had positive driving effects for landscape ecological risk in Fujian Province, while the average annual precipitation had a restraining effect. Therefore, optimising the urban economic development model and controlling the size of the permanent population is the key to the management and optimisation of landscape ecological risks in Fujian Province.