深圳市碳收支与土地利用变化的协整分析

人类活动对碳排放的影响很大程度上是通过改变土地利用方式实现的，探究土地利用变化与碳收支之间的定量关系，可以了解区域土地利用变化与碳收支的相互作用机制。该文首先分析了深圳市1995—2010年土地利用变化情况，指出变化的总体趋势是农用地减少，建设用地增加。在收集社会经济数据和能源数据的基础上，构建模型定量计算深圳市1995—2010年碳吸收量、碳排放量和碳收支。最后，运用协整理论检验深圳市建设用地与碳排放量，农用地与碳吸收量之间是否存在长期稳定关系。研究结果表明，深圳市建设用地总面积和碳排放量之间、农用地和碳吸收量之间不存在协整关系，即深圳市不能直接通过建设用地总面积、农用地面积直接预测未来碳排放量、碳吸收量和碳收支。协整性分析结果客观地反映了区域土地利用与碳收支的关系，对于低碳经济下土地利用调控具有重要意义。

Co-integration Analysis between Carbon Budget and Land Use Change in Shenzhen City

The carbon emission influenced by human activities is resulted from land use change to a large extent. Therefore, the exploration to the quantitative relationship between land use change and net carbon emissions can provide help to understand interaction mechanism between land use change and carbon budget. The land use change in Shenzhen City from 1995 to 2010 was analyzed, indicating that the overall trend was increases of construction lands and decreases of farmland. Based on collecting data of social economic and energy, the model was constructed to calculate the carbon emission, carbon absorption and carbon budget. The result showed that the total area of construction land and carbon emissions, agricultural land and carbon absorption do not have co-integration relationship in Shenzhen City, which means we cannot use the area of construction land and farmland in Shenzhen City to directly predict the future carbon emissions, carbon absorption and carbon budget. The results of co-integration analysis can objectively reflect relationship between regional land use and carbon budget, making a big difference on land use control under low-carbon economy.