水资源承载力评价熵模型的改进及应用

水资源承载力是水资源安全战略研究中的一个基础课题,是水资源安全的基本度量。针对目前水资源承载力评价熵模型中隶属度概念模糊的缺点,作者提出了级别隶属度和级别特征值的确定方法,级别特征值则可综合各级隶属度对评价结果的影响,此方法数学推导严谨,科学合理,计算简便易行,并进行尝试研究取得成功。该评价模型结果的分辨率、灵敏度较高,评价的可靠性较大,为水资源承载力的研究提供了一个新思路、新方法。

Improvement and Application of the Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity Base on Entropy

There exists several methods for the assessment of water resources carrying capacity, i.e. the index method, the fuzzy mathematical approach and system dynamics, and so on. Based on the Jaynes maximum entropy theory, a new model for assessing water resources carrying capacity is put forward in the year 2004. But there is a mistake in deciding subjection degree of level in this assessment model, thus the authors put forward a new method for deciding subjection degree of level. And this method is proved right throng example testing. A case study is given by using this model. The results compared with those of other approach shows that the model possesses some clear mathematic and physical conception and it is simple, practical and accurate. And it has higher resolution and sensitivity and reliability.