基于改进灰色关联度法的宝泉岭垦区粮食综合生产能力影响因素研究

提高粮食综合生产能力是确保我国粮食安全的重要途径。以黑龙江省宝泉岭垦区为研究区,分阶段分析了宝泉岭垦区1999—2008年粮食综合生产能力动态变化情况,从自然资源、农业生产要素投入、农业现代化水平三方面选取具有代表性的14个影响因子,运用改进的灰色关联法对影响宝泉岭垦区粮食综合生产能力的影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:不同阶段粮食综合生产能力的主要影响因素不同。1999—2002年,农膜使用量、粮食播种面积、化肥折纯量、复种指数是影响宝泉岭垦区粮食综合生产能力的最重要因子;2003—2008年,有效灌溉面积、化肥折纯量、农业机械总动力、农膜使用量四因素对粮食综合生产能力提高影响较大。农业现代化水平对粮食综合生产能力的影响强度增强趋势明显。提出提高科技支撑水平,切实落实粮食生产保护政策建议,为粮食生产决策部门有效提高垦区粮食产量提供一定的理论依据。

Study on the Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Baoquanling Reclamation Based on Improved Grey Correlation Degree Method

Raise of the comprehensive grain production ability is an important way to make sure the food security in China.This paper selected Baoquanling reclamation area as the study area,which is located in Heilongjiang Province.The time is divided into two stages to analyze the change of the comprehensive grain production ability from 1999 to 2008 in this area.Fourteen typical impact factors were chosen from three aspects which are natural resources,agricultural production inputs and agricultural modernization level.An improved grey correlation method was used to analyze the impact factors which have affected the comprehensive grain production ability.Results showed that: the main impact factors working on the comprehensive grain production ability were different in different stages.In 1999—2002,agricultural films use,area of grain sowing,application of chemical fertilizer,multiple crop index were the most important factors,however,effective irrigation area,application of chemical fertilizer,total power of agricultural machinery,agricultural films use played a key role in raising the comprehensive grain production ability in 2003—2008.It is obvious that the impact strength of the agricultural modernization level is increasing.The paper proposed suggestions of strengthening scientific and technological support,implementing grain production policy.The study ressult provides theoretical basis for the departments responsible for food production decision-making to effectively improve the grain production in the agricultural reclamation area.