基于RS与GIS重庆都市区土地利用/覆盖变化过程及预测分析

以重庆都市区为例,借助GIS和RS技术,运用土地利用/覆盖类型的动态度、转移矩阵和马尔柯夫过程研究方法,以重庆都市区1997年和2006年两期的TM数据作为研究对象,对重庆都市区近年来土地利用/覆盖的动态过程分析和未来土地利用/覆盖演变趋势进行了预测。为重庆都市区的土地规划、管理和决策提供依据,同时也为该区土地资源可持续发展提供借鉴。结果表明:1997—2006年间,都市区土地利用类型主要以耕地和林地为主,两者之和占总面积的70%以上;转移数量最大的是耕地,其面积净减少506.67km2,主要转化林地和建设用地;用马尔柯夫过程对2006年土地利用进行检验与预测,总体误差范围在卡方检验范围之内;2006—2024年的预测结果耕地面积百分比从2006年的62.24%降低到2024年的52.46%;建设用地面积百分比从2006年的8.99%增加到2024年的15.91%;林地、草地、水域变化相对较小。

The Process and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on RS and GIS in Metropolitan Area of Chongqing City

With the support of GIS and RS technology and the research methods of the dynamic degree of the land use/cover changes,transfer matrix and the Markov process,this paper studies the TM data of two periods(1997 and 2006) from urban Chongqing and predicts the analysis and evolution situation of dynamic process of the land use/cover changes of urban Chongqing in future.And this study provides not only basis of land planning,management and decision,but a source of reference for sustainable development of land resources in this area.The research results reveal that the type of land use of urban district is mainly arable and forest land from 1997 to 2006,the sum of which is more than 70%.The maximum number of transferred land is arable which decrease 506.67 km2.Then with the use of Markov process,land use is inspected and predicted.From 2006 to 2024,the predicted results show that arable area decreases from 62.24% in 2006 to 52.46% in 2024,while construction land area increases from 8.99% in 2006 to 15.91% in 2024.Differently,the area change of forest,grass and water is relatively little.