共享社会经济路径下土地利用变化模拟

针对高原湖滨地区土地利用无序扩张等问题,构建共享社会经济路径(SSPs)与未来土地利用模拟模型相结合的研究框架,并选取云贵高原湖泊分布最为密集的通海县、华宁县及江川区为研究区,开展不同SSPs情景下的未来土地利用模拟。结果表明:(1)SSP1情景下建设用地与农用地集约利用程度提升,且大量其他用地被转化为生态用地,是高原湖滨地区最为理想的未来发展模式;(2)SSP2情景下研究区保持现有发展趋势,土地利用变化自然发展;(3)SSP3情景下人类活动对自然环境的干扰随时间变化逐步加强,是未来高原湖滨地区发展需要避免的情景;(4)SSP4情景下研究区发展不平衡情况严重,经济增长缓慢,难以与生态实现协同发展;(5)SSP5情景下研究区以大量能源消耗为代价,土地利用变化强度先增大,后逐步减弱并达到稳定的状态。SSPs为未来土地利用模拟模型的参数设置提供了内涵和依据,两者结合可为云贵高原湖滨地区的可持续发展提供决策依据。

Simulation of Land Use Change Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

To address the problem of land use sprawl in lakeside areas on the plateau,we proposed the research framework that combined the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)and future land use simulation(FLUS)model.Then Tonghai County,Huanning County and Jiangchuan District where lakes most densely distribute on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau were selected as the study areas to carry out future land use simulations under different SSPs scenarios.The results show that:(1)the intensive uses of construction land and agricultural land increased under the SSP1 scenario,and a large amount of other land was converted into ecological land,which was the most ideal future development model for the lakeside areas on the plateau;(2)the study area maintained the existing development trend under the SSP2 scenario,and the land use changes developed naturally;(3)SSP3 scenario had a high degree of land use development and change dynamics,which was the scenario to be avoided in future social development;(4)under the SSP4 scenario,the unbalanced development of the study area was serious,the economic growth was slow,and it was difficult to achieve coordinated development with ecology;(5)under the SSP5 scenario,the intensity of land use change in the study area increased firstly,then weakened gradually and reached to a stable state at the cost of a large amount of energy.SSPs can provide the connotation and basis for the parameter setting of land use simulation model.The combination of SSPs and FLUS can provide a decision-making basis for sustainable development of the lakeside area in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.The SSPs can provide the parameters for the future land use simulation model.SSPs provide connotation and basis for parameter setting of the model,and the combination of the two can provide decision basis for sustainable development of the lakeshore area in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.