长江中游城市群农业生态效率时空演变及驱动因子研究

农业生态效率研究对真实反映农业经济发展与生态环境保护的协调关系具有重要意义。为科学评价长江中游城市群农业发展并为其策略制定提供依据,基于2000—2017年长江中游城市群各市面板数据,采用含有非期望产出的Super-SBM模型测算农业生态效率,分析其时空演变规律和空间相关性,并通过地理探测器模型对影响农业生态效率的驱动因子进行探测。结果表明:(1)2000—2017年长江中游城市群平均农业生态效率整体水平较高,呈现“降—升—降”的走势,湖南、江西省域与湖北省域差距较大,且地区农业生态效率发展不平衡,区域间差异逐年增大。(2)从空间相关性上看,长江中游城市群农业生态效率全局相关性呈现“随机—聚集”过程,且集聚现象随时间演进逐渐显著,局部空间相关性显示较弱,各相关类型随时间有不同程度的上升趋势,空间相关性逐渐向中心区域集中。(3)农业生态效率受多驱动因子共同作用,不同年份下部分驱动因子变化较大,驱动因子在不同地区对农业生态效率的影响表现出一定的地域性和差异性。长江中游城市群地区农业生态效率存在较大的提升空间,整体差异正在逐渐扩大,各地区应加强联系,采取合理措施促进“两型”农业发展。

Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Agricultural Eco-efficiency of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

Research on agricultural eco-efficiency is of great significance to truly reflect the coordinated relationship between agricultural economic development and ecological environmental protection.In order to scientifically evaluate the agricultural development of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and provide a basis for its strategy formulation,we used the Super-SBM model with undesired output to measure the agricultural eco-efficiency based on the panel data of the cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2000 to 2017,analyzed its time and space evolutionary patterns and spatial correlations,and used geographic detector models to detect the driving factors affecting agricultural eco-efficiency.The results show that:(1)the overall level of average agricultural eco-efficiency in the urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2000 to 2017 was relatively high,showing a trend of decrease-up-decrease;compared with Hubei Province,Hunan Province and Jiangxi Province had a large gap;the development of regional agricultural eco-efficiency was unbalanced,and regional differences had increased year by year;(2)from the perspective of spatial correlation,the global correlation of agricultural eco-efficiency in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River presented the random-aggregation process;the phenomenon of agglomeration of agricultural eco-efficiency had gradually evolved over time,and the local spatial correlation was weak;there were different degrees of upward trend,and the spatial correlation gradually concentrated in the central area;(3)agricultural eco-efficiency was affected by multiple driving factors;in different years,some driving factors varied greatly;In different regions,the influence of driving factors on agricultural eco-efficiency showed certain regional difference.There is a lot of room for improvement in agricultural ecological efficiency in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,and the overall difference is gradually expanding.All regions should strengthen ties and take reasonable measures to promote the development of two-oriented agriculture.