低碳概念下武汉市生态足迹的动态分析与预测

社会的发展，使人类处于从工业文明时代迈向生态文明时代的转折期。大力倡导低碳经济，建设生态文明，成为这一时期的主旋律。以生态足迹模型为基础，对武汉市1996—2010年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行计算，并运用灰色系统GM（1，1）模型对2011—2015年的生态足迹状况进行预测。结果表明:（1）1996—2010年武汉市人均生态足迹有所增加；（2）可使用的人均生态承载力总体呈下降趋势；（3）武汉市一直处于生态赤字状态，生态压力指数持续较高；（4）2011—2015年武汉市人均生态足迹逐年增加，而人均生态承载力逐年减少，按照现行发展模式，到2015年，武汉市人均生态赤字率将达到253%。因此，大力推动低碳经济发展，建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会，已经成为武汉市可持续发展战略的重要组成部分。

Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint Under the Concept of Low-Carbon in Wuhan

The society development makes human beings towards into the turning point from the industrial civilization era to the ecological civilization era. Advocating a low-carbon economy and constructing the ecological civilization have become the main theme of this period. Based on the ecological footprint model, we calculated the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological capacity of Wuhan from 1996 to 2010. Then we forested the ecological footprint conditions from 2011 to 2015 by the model of gray system GM (1,1). Last we drew four conclusions: (1) the per capita ecological footprint increased in Wuhan in 1996—2010; (2) there was a tendency that the available per capita ecological capacity declined as a whole; (3) Wuhan has been in ecological deficit, the index of ecological pressure continues to be high; (4) the per capita ecological footprint increased year by year, while the per capita ecological capacity was decreasing. According to the current model of development, the rate of the per capita ecological deficit will reach upto 253% by 2015. Therefore, promoting the development of low-carbon economy vigorously and building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society have become an important part of the sustainable development strategy of Wuhan City.