区域土地利用变化态势及其对土地可持续利用影响分析--以江苏省为例

在分析快速城市化区域土地利用变化与土地可持续利用相互作用机理的基础上，分析了江苏省土地利用结构的多样化和集中化趋势．并着重通过构建灰色系统动态模型，预测了2005年，2010年和2015年江苏土地利用结构的变化趋势，以及城市化快速发展对江苏土地可持续利用的影响。研究结果表明．2005-2015年间．江苏省土地利用结构将呈现农业用地非农化、农业用地质量退化以及土地利用效率难以快速提高、土地后备资源日趋减少等变化态势，据此，论文提出推进研究快速城市化区域土地可持续利用的政策建议。具体是：适度保护农地资源尤其是耕地资源，合理协调农业用地与非农业用地之间的相互关系．进一步完善区域土地利用政幕体系以及提高科学技术对于土地资源的替代率。

Trend of Regional Land Use Structure and Its Impacts on Sustainable Land Use--A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

Based on the analysis of mechanism of interactions between regional land use structure change and sustainable land use during the process of rapid urbanization,as the case of Jiangsu Province,the trend of diversification and centralization of land use structure is analyzed. Furthermore,trend of land use structure change in year 2005,2010 and 2015 and its effects of rapid urbanization on sustainable land use are predicted by building the Grey Systematic Dynamic Model. According to the research,during the year of 2005 and 2015,land use structure of Jiangsu province presents alienation of agricultural lands, degradation of agricultural land, hard-to-correct inefficiency of land use and increasing shortage of land resource reserves. Hereby,finally some suggestions are put forward to advance the research of sustainable land use,that is,properly protecting agricultural land resource especially cultivated land, reasonably harmonizing the relationship between agricultural land and non-agricultural land,consummating land use policy and improving the efficiency of science and technology substituting land resource in Jiangsu Province.