| 湖北省农作物播种面积灰色预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁守真,李仁东.湖北省农作物播种面积灰色预测[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(4):114-115,119. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁守真 李仁东 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所,武汉,430077;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039
2. 中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所,武汉,430077 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先介绍了灰色系统理论及灰色预测建模原理,以湖北省连续9年的农作物播种面积数据为基础,建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对湖北省未来8年的农作物播种面积进行了预测,并对预测结果进行检验,预测结果精度较高,可以用来对湖北省未来几年的农作物播种面积进行预测。结果表明,湖北省农作物播种面积呈现逐步下降趋势,土地利用规划部门应实行严格的耕地保护制度,切实保障农民的利益,提高农民耕种的积极性。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 灰色预测模型 GM(1 1) 湖北 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-3409（2006）04-0114-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-07-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-07-15 |
Grey Prediction Model on Sown Areas of Farm Crops in Hubei Province |
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| LIANG Shou-zhen,LI Ren-dong.Grey Prediction Model on Sown Areas of Farm Crops in Hubei Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(4):114-115,119. |
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| Authors: | LIANG Shou-zhen LI Ren-dong |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Survey and Geophysics, CAS, Wuhan 430077,China; 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039,China |
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| Abstract: | First the theory of grey system and of principle grey prediction model is presented.Based on the data of sown areas of farm crops in Hubei Province for 9 years,the GM(1,1) grey prediction model is established and the precision of prediction is higher by checking the result,so the model may be applied to the prediction of sown areas of farm crops in Hubei Province for futural severe years.The results show that the sown areas of farm crops in Hubei Province is decreased. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory grey prediction model GM(1 1) Hubei |
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