喀斯贫困山区土地资源承载力动态分析与预测

运用土地资源承载力评估模型、承载指数模型及灰色预测模型对贵州土地资源承载力进行动态分析和预测。结果表明:2003—2013年贵州年末总人口、土地资源承载力指数、人口超载率总体上表现出波动上升趋势；年末粮食生产总量、土地资源承载力、粮食盈余率表现出波动下降趋势。说明贵州省所能承载人口远远低于实际总人口，土地资源承载力一直处于超载态势，粮食盈余率表现出负增长，粮食严重不足。土地承载力指数表现出波动上升的趋势，揭示粮食自给率比较低，人口与粮食之间矛盾十分突出。灰色预测结果显示，2014—2023年的土地资源承载力表现出逐年下降趋势，由2014年的2 527.42万人下降到2023年的2 248.73万人，10年间下降了11.03%；土地资源承载力指数表现出逐年上升的趋势，由2014年的1.75上升到2023年的2.25，10年间上升了28.57%，表明如果按照当前趋势发展下去，未来10年研究区土地资源承载力将会严重过载，人地矛盾日趋严峻，影响经济社会可持续发展。研究可为缓解人地矛盾及实现区域可持续发展提供科学依据。

Analysis and Prediction of Land Resources Carrying Capacity in Karst Mountainous Areas

By applying the land resources carrying capacity(LCC) model, carrying capacity index (LCCI) model and grey forecast model, we analyzed the dynamic changes of the land resources carrying capacity from 2003 to 2013 in Karst mountainous areas of Guizhou Province,and predicted the development trends of land resources carrying capacity between the year 2014 and year 2023. The results showed that from 2003 to 2013, the total population at the end of the year, land resource carrying capacity index, population overload rate showed the general upward trend in Guizhou Province, total grain production at the end of the year, land resource carrying capacity, grain surplus rate showed downward trend, indicating that the population carried by Guizhou Province was far lower than the actual total population, land resources carrying capacity has been overloaded, the grain surplus rate showed negative growth, food was serious shortage. The land carrying capacity index showed a trend of fluctuation upward, which revealed that the grain self-sufficiency rate was relatively low, and the contradiction between population and grain was very prominent. Gray prediction results showed that the land resources carrying capacity decreased from 2.527 42×10⁷ people in 2014 to 2023 of 2.248 73×10⁷ people, by 11.03% during 10 years; land carrying capacity index increased from 1.75 in 2014 to 2.25 in 2023, by 28.57% during 10 years, which indicated that if the current trend can not be changed, land resources carrying capacity will be severely overload in the next 10 years, the increasingly severe contradiction between people and land will impact the economic and social sustainable development. These results will provide the scientific basis for alleviating the contradiction between people and land, and achieving the regional sustainable development.