吉林省中部水资源承载力研究

水资源已经成为吉林中部社会经济发展的制约因子。在介绍了水资源承载力的基本理论框架的基础上，选取预测平衡法对吉林中部的水资源承载力进行了评价和预测。认为研究区已处于水资源承载力临界状态；在保持现有供水能力的条件下，通过用水结构的调整可以支撑社会经济发展目标的实现；预测期内，研究区的水资源利用总量将基本保持稳定，但利用结构将发生重大的变化，工业用水和居民用水总量将超过农业用水；工业化和城镇化所带来的用水增加将主要通过建设农业节水体系获得平衡。

Research on Carrying Capacity of Water Resource in the Middle Part of Jilin Province

Water resource is one of the factors which restricts tile oevelopment of society and economy in the middle part of Jilin Province. The theoretical framework of carrying capacity of water resources was described. On this basis, carrying capacity of water resources was appraised and predicted by the predict-balance method in the area. The conclusion is that carrying capacity of waters resource has approached to the critical point in the studying area. Realization of the developing goal can be supported by adiusting the structure of water utilization. Within the forecasting period,the gross of water resources utilization in the studying area will be stable,while the structure of utilization will be greatly changed. The amount of water utilization of industry and residents will exceed that of agriculture. Therefore ,the increase in water demand, resulting from industrialization and urbanization,will be met by agricultural water-saving system.