| 干旱区水资源承载力分析及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 苑涛,何秉宇.干旱区水资源承载力分析及应用[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(3):341-342,345. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苑涛 何秉宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学资源与环境学院,乌鲁木齐,830046 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了干旱区水资源承载力的特点，综合考虑水资源、生态、社会经济方面相互影响，从中选取评价干旱区水资源承载力指标，构建了基于极大熵原理的干旱区水资源承载力模糊评价模型。同时将干旱区水资源承载力指标体系和模糊评价模型应用于克拉玛依市水资源承载力评价，得出了克拉玛依市未来20a的水资源承载力虽处在不可承载状态，但有向良性发展的趋势，水资源缺乏是制约地区发展的主要因素的结论。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱区 水资源承载力 模糊综合评价模型 克拉玛依市 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-3409（2007）03-0341-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-08-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-09 |
Research and Application of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Arid Area |
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| YUAN Tao,HE Bing-yu.Research and Application of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Arid Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(3):341-342,345. |
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| Authors: | YUAN Tao HE Bing-yu |
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| Institution: | Resource and Environment Institute, Xinjiang University ,Urumqi 830046, China |
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| Abstract: | Shortage of water resources is a key factor restricting the social and economic development and the ecological environmental conservation in arid area. Carrying capacity of water resources is an important component in the carrying capacity of all the natural resources in achieving the national and regional sustainable development, especially in arid area. The influence factors of water resources carrying capacity were analyzed, and fuzzy synthetic evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity was built up on the basis of the Jaynes maximum entropy information theory on the base of fuzzy mathematics. At last the model was adapted to analyse and to predict water resources carrying capacity in Karamay City in the 15 future years. |
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| Keywords: | water resources carrying capacity fuzzy synthetic evaluation arid area |
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