沧州市人口-耕地-粮食协调发展关系时空变异

人口、耕地和粮食的协调发展是区域可持续发展的重要保障，也是当今社会的关注热点。以沧州市为研究对象，应用协调度函数模型对沧州市14个县（市）的人口—耕地—粮食系统协调发展度进行综合评价，以确定和识别沧州市2003—2012年该系统的演进态势，研究分析了各区域协调发展关系的时空变异。结果表明:沧州市人口—耕地—粮食系统协调发展水平总体不高，协调发展度D值约为0.52，处于基本协调水平。从时间序列上看，沧州市人口—耕地—粮食系统协调发展水平呈波动起伏变化，无明显规律可循，但总体上呈上升态势。所辖14个县（市）由2003年的以极不协调为主发展为2012年以比较协调和高度协调为主。从空间分布来看，沧州市所辖14个县（市）人口—耕地—粮食系统协调发展水平及年平均增长率均存在显著差异，吴桥县协调发展水平在沧州市始终最高，海兴县最低，协调发展度平均增长率青县最高，为8.60%；吴桥县最低，为0.33%。协调发展水平总体上呈现出西南部最高，中部地区次之，西部再次，东部最低。研究为制定区域粮食安全预警机制，制定差异化三农政策，推动区域内各地区农业生态经济系统的均衡发展提供参考依据。

Spatiotemporal Variation of Coordinated Development Relationship Between Population,Cultivated Land and Grain in Cangzhou City

The coordinated development of population, cultivated land and food is the important guarantee of regional sustainable development, is also the concerned hot spot in nowaday society. Taking Cangzhou City as the research case and applying the coordination degree function model, we evaluated the coordinated development degree of population, cultivated land and grain of 14 counties (cities) in Cangzhou City, and determined and identified the evolution of the three systems in Cangzhou City from 2003 to 2012, examined and analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of the regional coordinated development relation. The results showed that the population, cultivated land and grain composite system coordinated development level was not high in Cangzhou City. The coordinated development degree D value was about 0.52, which is at the basic level of coordination. From the point of view of time series, the population, cultivated land and grain composite system coordinated development level presented the fluctuating changes. There is no obvious rule to follow, but the level generally presented the rising trend. The three systems was not harmonious in 2003, while was given priority to more coordination and high coordination. From the point of spatial distribution, the coordination development level and the average annual growth rate of the three systems in 14 counties or cities in Cangzhou City, the coordinated development level in Wuqiao County was always the highest, it was the lowest in Haixing County. The average growth rate of coordinated development degree in Qing County was the highest (8.60%) and it was the lowest (0.33%) Wuqiao. The coordinated development level in southwest was the highest, followed by the central region and the western region, it was the lowest in the eastern area. This research could provide the reference for early warning mechanism of the development of regional food security, making different polices of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, promoting regional balanced development of regional agricultural ecological economic system.