基于可拓物元-马尔科夫模型的省域生态环境质量动态评价与预测——以江西省为例

在构建生态环境质量物元的特征指标体系基础上,基于可拓物元.马尔科夫模型提出了省域生态环境质量动态评价与预测的方法,并以江西省为例进行了应用研究.研究显示:可拓物元模型揭示2000～2005年间江西省生态环境质量整体上转好,但11个地区生态环境质量演化状况存在一定差异;而马尔科夫预测表明,按照现有的治理模式,5～10年后江西省生态环境质量整体上向"较好"方向演进.基于可拓物元法基础上的马尔科夫预测方法,可一定程度上对省域生态环境质量进行动态评价和趋势预测,但由于两模型本身假设的限制,在其具体应用中还需改进.

Dynamic assessment and forecasting of provincial eco-environmental quality from matter element model and Markov chain --A case study of Jiangxi Province

By developing a characteristics indicator system of eco-environmental matter elements, this paper advanced an assessment and forecasting method of provincial eco-environmental quality based on the matter element model and Markov chain. The system was applied to Jiangxi Province as case study. The results show that eco-environmental quality in Jiangxi Province as simulated by matter element model has been, on the overall, improved from 2000 to 2005. The degree of improvement is, however, different for the 11 districts in the province. On the other hand, Markov chain forecast shows that the eco-environmental quality seems heading in a better evolutional direction in the next 5~10 years, provided current eco-environment governance is sustained. The application effects imply that the assessment and forecast of the models, to a certain extent, reflect actual conditions and development trends of the provincial eco-environmental quality. However, because of limitations in the model assumptions, improvements are needed in application of the model to different regions in different phases of economic development.