中国生态足迹的动态研究

通过对中国1978~2003年的生态足迹的动态研究,获得中国生态足迹和生态承载力预测模型。结果表明中国人均生态足迹由1978年的0.8992hm2逐年增加至2003年的2.2522hm2,人均生态承载力由0.7722hm2增加到0.8819hm2。中国1978年的人均生态赤字为0.127hm2,2003年人均生态赤字增至1.3702hm2。预测中国2010年和2015年人均生态足迹分别为2.7767hm2和3.1717hm2,人均生态承载力分别为1.0224hm2和1.1319hm2,人均生态赤字分别达1.7543hm2和2.0398hm2。说明中国现有的发展模式是不可持续的,生态环境处于不安全状态,生态安全和经济发展间的矛盾加剧。

Dynamics of ecological footprint in China

The ecological footprint of China from 1978 to 2003 was studied,and the forecast models of ecological footprint and ecological capacity were obtained.The results of the analyses on dynamics of ecological footprints show that the ecological footprint per capita gradually increased from 0.8992hm~2 in 1978 to 2.2522hm~2 in 2003,and the ecological capacity increased from 0.7722hm~2 to 0.8819hm~2.The ecological deficit was 0.127hm~2 in 1978,and rose to 1.3702hm~2 by 2003.The forecast shows that the ecological footprint per capita will be 2.7767hm~2 in 2010 and 3.1717hm~2 in 2015,and that the ecological capacity per capita will be 1.0224hm~2 in 2010 and 1.1319hm~2 in 2015,and that the ecological deficit per capita will reach to 1.7543hm~2 in 2010 and 2.0398hm~2 in 2015.The research indicates that the present developing mode is not sustainable,the ecological environment is at risk,and the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are becoming more and more obvious.