基于集对分析和主成分分析的吉林西部生态承载力演变研究

利用集对分析(SPA)和主成分分析(PCA)方法对吉林省西部生态承载力(ECC)演变规律与驱动因素进行了分析.通过PCA获取影响ECC的3个主成分并利用各主成分构建ECC评价框架;通过SPA求得ECC对最优指标集的贴近度, 利用贴近度变化表示ECC的优劣程度.结果表明:1995～2004年研究区ECC整体呈上升趋势, 其贴近度从0.430 0上升到0.501 2, 但波动性较强.系统经济效率上升是ECC提高的主要原因, 水资源是ECC波动的首要影响因素, 也是限制ECC提高的主要因素.吉林省西部所承载的人口和经济水平有所上升, 但也造成资源的大量消耗和生态系统严重退化, 资源环境指标贴近度有所下降.若不采取有效应对措施, 脆弱的资源环境系统将会对未来ECC提高产生较大限制作用.

Evolution of ecological carrying capacity of western Jilin Province via set pair analysis and principal component analysis

The evolution of ecological carrying capacity (ECC) of western Jilin Province (1995 ~ 2004) was analyzed via set pair analysis (SPA) and principal component analysis (PCA). From PCA, 3 principal components influencing ECC were identified, which were then used to construct ECC assessment framework. The approach degree of optimal scenario aggregate was determined via SPA, which was then used to evaluate the quality of ECC evolution. The results indicate that ECC of western Jilin Province has an increasing tendency, and the approach degree varies from 0.430 0 to 0.501 2, with obvious fluctuations. Improvements in economic efficiency contribute the most to ECC increase, while water resources constitute the main driving factor of ECC fluctuation, and the main factor limiting ECC of western Jilin Province. Compared to 1995, western Jilin Province supports more people with higher economic and living standards in 2004, though at the cost of high resource utilization and severe ecosystem degradation. Thus the approach degree of resource-environment has steadily declined since 1995. The vulnerability of the resource-environment system would severely limit future ECC of western Jilin Province unless effective countermeasures are adopted.