生态示范区可持续发展量化研究-- 以安徽省岳西县国家级生态示范区为例

以岳西县国家级生态示范区为例,研究构建了1套可量化的可持续发展评价指标体系,并用指数叠加法与模糊综合评价法研究该生态示范区不同时空尺度的可持续发展度和隶属度结果表明,在基准水平年(2000年)、近期目标年(2005年)和远景目标年(2010年)3个规划年限中,生态示范区复合系统可持续发展度分别为0.268、0.541和0.859,并分别以不可持续发展、初级可持续发展和可持续发展隶属度为最大(0.487、0.484和0.663);在不同规划年限中自然子系统可持续发展度和可持续发展隶属度均为最优,这与该县生态环境优越、经济社会水平低、发展潜力大的客观实际非常符合。

Quantitative analysis on development sustainability of ecological demonstration area-A case study from national ecological demonstration area of Yuexi County,Anhui Province

Based on the case study of national ecological demonstration area of Yuexi County,a set of quantified indicator system and two kinds of mathematical methods (indices weighed coupling method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method) are developed and explained in detail for calculating and evaluating the development sustainability in multi-temporal-spatial scales.The results show that in datum year (2000),near future year (2005) and long-term target year (2010),the sustainability degrees are 0.268,0.541,0.859 respectively,among which the best memberships are unsustainability ((0.487),)preliminary sustainability (0.484) and sustainability (0.663) respectively;in addition,the sustainability degrees and memberships of natural subsystem are always the best among three target years.This is dovetailed with the present condition and future trend of this studied region,such as predominant environment and resources,under-developed economy and good potentiality.It will efficiently promote the areal sustainable development if the plan can be implemented on time.