基于云模型的冬小麦气候适宜度评价方法 ——以安徽省宿州市为例

为建立冬小麦气候适宜度量化评价方法,本文基于云模型理论,依据光、温和水界限指标,采用"3En"法则确定云参数,建立日照、气温和降水对小麦生长影响的云模型。运用积分回归法,确定权重系数,采用加权综合法和几何平均法,确定不同生育期和全生育期气候适宜度,利用1954—2013年安徽省宿州市各县(区)冬小麦单产和1995—2013年观测地段产量因素等资料进行检验。结果表明,日照适宜度可用左半云,气温和降水适宜度可用梯形云来表达。计算的冬小麦全生育期气候适宜度,与宿州市各县(区)冬小麦气候产量呈显著或极显著正相关关系;与观测地段的冬小麦气候产量、千粒重、每穗籽粒数和乳熟期株高呈显著正相关,相关系数分别为0.588 0(P0.01)、0.756 1(P0.01)、0.670 7(P0.01)和0.464 3(P0.05)。返青—拔节期、抽穗—乳熟期2个时期的气候适宜度与单位面积穗数、每穗籽粒数的相关系数分别为0.558 9(P0.05)、0.710 7(P0.01)和0.736 1(P0.01)、0.744 2(P0.01),拔节—抽穗期气候适宜度与单位面积穗数的相关系数为0.649 8(P0.01)。1954—2013年宿州市日照与降水适宜度以每10年0.005和0.008的速度降低,气温适宜度以每10年0.028的速率升高。研究结果可作为评价宿州冬小麦对气候条件的适应性及制定相应策略的参考依据。

Evaluation of climate suitability of winter wheat based on cloud model analysis- A case study of Suzhou,Anhui Province

AbstractBased on three limiting indexes (light, temperature and water), an evaluation system was set up along with its parameters for normal cloud models and the “3En” rule to evaluate the suitability of winter wheat to climatic factors. The weighted comprehensive assessment and geometric mean method were used to determine the climate suitability of winter wheat for the whole growth period, while the integral regression method was used to determine the weight coefficients for each growth stage. The calculated values were analyzed in relation to winter wheat yield in every district of Suzhou City of Anhui Province from 1954 to 2013 and the actual observed yield and its’ components from 1995 to 2013. The results showed that the trapezium cloud model was suitable for air temperature and precipitation suitability evaluation, while the left-half cloud model was suitable for sunshine suitability analysis. There was significantly positive correlation between the climate suitability of winter wheat for the whole growth period and climate-driven yield, 1000-grain weight, kernel number per ear, and plant height at milk stage in the study area. The corresponding correlation coefficients were 0.588 0 (P< 0.01), 0.756 1 (P< 0.01), 0.670 7 (P< 0.01) and 0.464 3 (P< 0.05), respectively. The correlation coefficients between the climate suitability and panicle per unit area of winter wheat were 0.558 9 (P< 0.05), 0.649 8 (P< 0.01) and 0.736 1 (P< 0.01) at returning green-jointing stage, jointing-heading stage and heading-milk ripe stage, respectively. There was a significantly positive correlation between climate suitability and kernel number per ear — 0.710 7 (P< 0.01) and 0.744 2 (P< 0.01) at returning green-jointing stage and heading-milk ripe stage, respectively. The suitability of sunshine and precipitation decreased at the rates of 0.005 and 0.008 per decade. However, the suitability of temperature in the study area increased at the rate of 0.028 per decade in 1954–2013. The study laid the scientific reference for evaluating adaptability and developing response strategies of winter wheat to climatic conditions.