农村电商与乡村振兴互动发展的系统动力学研究

乡村振兴战略的部署实施为农村基础设施建设、农村经济结构创新、农村技术人才培养提供了充分的政策保障，极大地改善了农村电商发展的外部环境与内在要求。与此同时，农村电商的发展又在市场拓展、产业升级、资金融通等方面促进了乡村振兴战略的实施。为了实现二者的高效互动，本文通过构建农村电商与乡村振兴互动发展的系统动力学模型，揭示了农村电商网商数量、农特产品市场、农村电商专业人才规模、资金规模4个子系统之间的因果关系和动态反馈机制，并基于我国2010—2016年农村经济发展的相关统计数据对农村电商和乡村振兴的互动性进行了仿真模拟。对系统动力学模型进行的稳定性和有效性检验表明，模型能够真实地反映农村经济增长过程中农村电商和乡村振兴互动发展的实际系统结构和功能。在此基础上，通过调整农村电商固定资产投资水平参数、农村电商教育投资水平参数、农业财政补贴因子、农村居民消费补贴因子4个政策变量的取值，进一步对农村电商同乡村振兴互动发展的政策进行模拟。模拟结果显示：影响农村电商与乡村振兴互动发展的主要因素是农业财政补贴力度；相关扶持政策在农村电商和乡村振兴互动发展的过程中具有不同的政策效果，呈现出明显的阶段性特征。因此，逐步加大农业财政补贴力度，构建全方位的政策支持体系对于实现农村电商与乡村振兴的互动发展至关重要，同时应根据农村电商发展与乡村振兴战略实施的现状，分阶段、有针对性地重点推进相关政策，以促进农村电商与乡村振兴的互动发展。

System dynamic research on interactive development of rural e-commerce and revitalization

The implementation of rural revitalization strategy has provided sufficient policy guarantee for rural infrastructure construction, rural economic structure innovation and rural technical personnel training; in turn greatly improving the external environment and internal requirements of rural e-commerce development. Also the development of rural e-commerce has promoted the implementation of rural revitalization strategy in terms of market expansion, industrial upgrading and financing. In order to achieve high-efficiency interaction between the two strategies, we constructed a system dynamics model of interactive development between rural e-commerce and rural revitalization to show causal relationship and dynamic feedback mechanism among the four subsystems of number of rural e-commerce operators, agricultural special product market, rural e-commerce professional talents scale and capital scale. Based on statistical data of rural economic development in China for 2010-2016, we simulated the interaction between rural e-commerce and rural revitalization. Stability and validity tests of the system dynamics model showed that the model truly reflected actual system structure and function of rural e-commerce and rural revitalization in rural economic growth. On this basis, the policy of the interactive development between rural e-commerce and rural revitalization was further simulated by adjusting the values of four policy variables of rural e-commerce fixed asset investment parameter, rural e-commerce education investment parameter, agricultural financial subsidy factor and rural resident consumption subsidy factor. The simulation results showed that the main factor influencing interactive development between rural e-commerce and rural revitalization was the intensity of agricultural financial subsidies. Also relevant supporting policies had different effects on the process of interactive development between rural e-commerce and rural revitalization, with obvious stage characteristics. Therefore, gradually increasing the intensity of agricultural financial subsidies and building comprehensive policy support systems were necessary to realize interactive development between rural e-commerce and rural revitalization. Also according to current conditions of rural e-commerce development and rural revitalization strategy implementation, there was need to focus on promoting relevant policies to promote interactive development between rural e-commerce and rural revitalization in a phased and targeted manner.