四川农村人口土地和经济系统的协调发展及时空演变

本文利用量化分析法和GIS空间分析法,以四川省为例,研究了在快速城镇化背景下,农村人口、土地和经济协调发展的时空变化特征及问题,以探讨农村社会经济可持续发展的出路。研究结果表明:2014年,四川农村人口-土地-经济系统以勉强协调过渡类和良好协调发展类为主,但区域间差异较大,表现为优质协调发展与严重失调衰退现象并存;从时间特征看,2000—2014年农村人口-土地-经济系统协调发展的时序变化较大,轻度失调衰退区和勉强协调过渡区有所减少,良好协调发展区逐渐增多,2000年勉强协调过渡区和良好协调发展区分别占市(州)总数的61.90%和14.29%,到2014年则分别占总数的33.34%和52.38%,而优质协调发展区和严重失调衰退区均无变化,总体呈现良好发展态势;从空间特征看,协调发展度较高的地区主要分布在平原、丘陵地区,山地、高原等自然地理条件较差区域的协调发展度则较低。总体而言,由于受地形地貌、资源禀赋和地理区位等方面的影响,四川各市(州)农村人口、土地、经济发展水平和三者间的协调发展度存在较大差异,应根据区域发展特色与不足,确定农业发展目标和重点,促进农村社会经济的可持续发展。

Coordinated development and its' spatio-temporal evolution of rural population, land and economy system in Sichuan Province

It is important for sustainable development of rural economic-social system to explore interaction degree among people''s life standard, land use degree and economic development level. This paper used a comprehensive evaluation index system of "population, land and economy" to calculate the development indexes of rural population, land use and economic development. The coupling degree and coordinated development degree of population, land and economy system were also assessed. The coordinated development of rural population, land and economy system was categorized into five types-serious inharmonious and decline (SIHD), mild inharmonious and decline (MIHD), barely coordinated transition (BCT), well-coordinated development (WCD) and highly coordinated development (HCD). Using quantitative analysis and GIS platform, this paper analyzed the characteristics and problems of spatial and temporal variations of coordinated development among rural population, land and economy under accelerated urbanization in Sichuan Province, and then further explores the way for sustainable development of the rural socio-economy. The result showed that in 2014, BCT and WCD were predominated types in Sichuan rural population, land and economy system with obvious regional differences, as some regions had excellent coordination development level while some others were still undergoing SIHD. In terms of time span, there was a wide range of change in coordinated development of rural population, land and economy system during the period 2000-2014. The number of MIHD region and BCT region reduced, while BCT region which occupied 61.90% of the total region in 2000, and fell to 33.34% in 2014. Also WCD region increased gradually from 14.29% in 2000 to 52.38% in 2014, while HCD and SIHD remained relatively stable, showing an overall development momentum. In more recent years, reform of rural land policy positively influenced land and improved land use efficiency. The integration of urban and rural construction was conducive for promoting the development of rural economy, promoting increased rural land development index and economic development index. With regard to spatial characteristics, regions with HCD were mainly located in plain and hilly regions. On the contrary, there was low degree of coordination in regions with poor natural geographical conditions such as mountains and plateaus. Specifically in central plain areas, northeastern hilly regions and southern hilly regions of Sichuan, the degree of coordinated development was high compared with regions with low degree of coordinated development in Panxi area and northwest plateau region; which was basically consistent with the actual situation in Sichuan. In conclusion, influenced by geomorphic characteristics, resource endowment, geographical location, etc., the development levels of rural population, land and economy, and the degree of coordinated development of these three factors (rural population, land and economy) were quite different in terms of the various prefectures or counties in Sichuan. Thus strategies such as setting agricultural development goals and priorities and promoting sustainable development of rural socio-economy should be done based on the regional development characteristics and deficiencies.