三大粮食作物产量潜力与产量差研究进展

产量潜力和产量差的研究对揭示未来粮食增产潜力,有针对性地制定提高作物产量的措施具有重要意义。通过总结近年发表的64篇经典文献,本文总结了世界三大粮食作物小麦、水稻和玉米的产量潜力和产量差的研究进展,并对定量产量潜力和产量差的4种常用方法进行了比较分析。研究表明:1)当前全世界小麦、水稻、玉米的平均产量潜力分别为6.7 t-hm-2、8.1 t-hm-2、11.2 t-hm-2,农户产量分别实现了产量潜力的60%、60%、53%。2)模型模拟是目前定量评估产量潜力最为有效的方法之一,综合使用模型模拟和高产纪录两种方法进行比较分析产量潜力结果会更加可靠;试验产量和高产农户产量一般会低于模型模拟产量潜力,对探索农户短期内增产潜力具有重要意义。3)优化栽培管理措施比如应用土壤-作物综合管理系统等方法是缩小产量差的有效途径。因此,当前三大粮食作物具有较大增产潜力,如何有效缩小产量差、提高作物产量、保证粮食安全是未来需要关注的重点。

Research advance in yield potential and yield gap of three major cereal crops

Understanding yield potential and yield gap for major cereal crops is critical for improving crop yield and helping farmers to adopt effective cultivation strategies. Based on 64 recently published classical literatures, this review summarized research advance in yield potential and yield gap for three major cereal crops (wheat, rice and maize) grown around the world. The different methods of measurement of yield potential and yield gap were also compared. The results showed that global yield potential was 6.7 t hm^-2 for wheat, 8.1 t hm^-2 for rice and 11.2 t hm^-2 for maize, and that the average yields of farmers for wheat, rice and maize were respectively 60%, 60% and 53% of the yield potential. Furthermore, it was noted that yield estimation by crop models was one of the most effective methods of quantifying yield potential. The yield potentials based on recorded highest yield and model-estimated yield were highly reasonable. Although yield potential based on experimental yield and best farmers' yield were lower than that based on model-estimated yield, it was still important for exploring potential improvements in yield in short term. Finally, it was advanced that optimized management strategies, such as integrated soil-crop system management, were effective ways for reducing yield gap. There still existed a large potential to increase grain yield for the three major cereal crops of wheat, rice and maize. It was indicated that studies on how to close yield gap, improve grain yield and ensure food security would attract a considerable attention in the future.