气候变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物生产潜力的影响

基于四川盆地1961—2018年63个气象台站的逐日气象资料和1981—2018年46个农业气象观测站的主要粮食作物(水稻、玉米和冬小麦)生育期资料,利用逐级订正的方法计算作物气候生产潜力,分析太阳辐射、气温、降水及气候变化对四川盆地主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的影响,研究旨在为提高区域农业生产力并保障农业可持续发展提供科学依据。结果显示:1961—2018年四川盆地作物多年平均气候生产潜力的分布为水稻由西向东递增,玉米在盆地北部和西南偏高、其他地区偏低,冬小麦南北高、中部低。辐射量减小对3种作物气候生产潜力的影响为负效应;平均气温升高对作物气候生产潜力的影响为正效应;降水量变化是作物气候生产潜力变化出现空间差异的主要原因,降水量增加对作物气候生产潜力的影响为正效应,而降水量减少为负效应。气候变化对水稻气候生产潜力的影响在盆地西南部和北部的部分地区为正效应,其余地区为负效应;气候变化对玉米气候生产潜力的影响在盆地南部和东部的部分地区为正效应,其余地区为负效应;气候变化对冬小麦气候生产潜力的影响在盆地东北部的部分地区为负效应,其余大部地区为正效应。总体来看,气候变化对四川盆地冬小麦气候生产潜力的影响最大,为9.9kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1),而对玉米和水稻的影响分别为-1.4 kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)和0.5 kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)。为了适应气候变化,四川盆地应选育光合效率高和抗旱性强的作物品种,并加强农田管理,以提高农业生产水平并保障粮食安全。

Impact of climate change on potential productivities of main grain crops in the Sichuan Basin

Potential crop productivity is important for evaluating agricultural climate resources. This study calculated the climatic potential productivity (CPP) of three grain crops (rice, maize, and winter wheat) using meteorological data. Daily measurements from 1961 to 2018 from 63 meteorological stations (Sichuan Basin, China) and crop phenology data from 1981 to 2018 from 46 agricultural meteorological stations were used to analyze productivity. Climatic factors, such as radiation, air temperature, and precipitation, and the effects of climate change were evaluated to provide regionally specific guidance for increasing agricultural productivity and sustainability. The results showed that the rice CPP in the Sichuan Basin increased from west to east between 1961 and 2018, the maize CPP was higher in the north and southwest, and the CPP of winter wheat was higher in the north and south. Reduced radiation negatively affected the CPPs of three crops, and higher temperatures positively affected the crop CPPs. Precipitation was the dominant climatic factor, affecting the spatial change of the CPP. Increased precipitation positively affected the crop CPPs, and decreased precipitation negatively affected the CPPs. The impact of climate change on the rice, maize, and winter wheat CPP was variable (positive in some basin areas, but negative in others); the overall effects of climate change on the CPPs were 0.5 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for rice, -1.4 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for maize, and 9.9 kg·hm^-2·a^-1 for winter wheat. Improving the selection of photosynthetically-efficient and drought-resistant crop varieties and crop field management are needed for climate change adaptation and to ensure food security.