中国粮食生产与消费中的虚拟水平衡动态变化研究

为优化我国粮食生产水资源利用的空间配置,运用虚拟水分析方法,多尺度分析我国近十年粮食生产和消费中的虚拟水含量空间分布动态变化规律。结果表明:北方粮食生产虚拟水量呈上升趋势,由1998年的3019.1亿m3上升到2007年的3197.5亿m3,上升幅度达5.90%;南方粮食生产虚拟水量则呈下降趋势,由1998年的3207.5亿m3下降到2007年的2801.4亿m3,下降幅度达12.66%。1998～2006年,全国粮食消费虚拟水增长4.43%,年均增长0.49%。北方增长速度快,9年间增长7.70%,而南方则只增长1.84%。近十年全国粮食生产与消费的虚拟水平衡整体表现为负。南方的虚拟水平衡一直为负,且数值呈上升趋势,北方虚拟水平衡态势则整体表现为正。粮食生产和消费的虚拟水资源"北水南调"现象稳定存在,且有增强趋势。其中,东北是虚拟水资源"北水南调"的实质性调出区,黄淮海、华北、东南和华南为实质性调入区。研究结果说明,从水资源的角度看,我国当前的粮食生产和消费格局存在较大问题,需要进行适当调整。

Dynamic law of virtual water equilibrium for foodstuff production and consumption in China

In order to optimize spatial allocation of water resources, spatial distribution dynamics of virtual water for foodstuff production, consumption and their equilibrium in China for 1998~2007 were analyzed. The analysis shows that North China outputs increasing virtual water for foodstuff production from 3 019.1×10⁸ m³ in 1998 to 3 197.5×10⁸ m³ in 2007. On the other hand, South China shows the opposite trend where virtual water for foodstuff production declines from 3 207.5×10⁸ m³ in 1998 to 2 801.4×10⁸ m³ in 2007. There is 4.43% growth of virtual water consumption for foodstuff from 1998 to 2006 in China. The north has 7.70% growth of virtual water consumption for foodstuff while the south has only 1.84% growth. Virtual water equilibrium for foodstuff production and consumption is negative in China. However, the south and the north have different trends. The south has an increasing negative equilibrium trend whereas the opposite is the case for the north. The North-South Water Diversion of virtual water in China has an increasing significant implication for foodstuff production and consumption. The northeast is a typical virtual water output region whereas Huang-Huai-Hai, North China, Southeast and South China are typical virtual water input regions. From the perspective of water resources, the study shows that foodstuff production and consumption pattern in China has some problems that requires proper adjustment.