城市农业发展驱动力筛选和驱动机制定量分析——以潍坊市为例

我国以农业立国,农业景观是我国国土的基本面貌与存在,但这种普遍的存在,往往容易被忽视和轻慢。作为新兴的设计类型与意识形态,城市农业景观的发展必将极大地影响当下城市空间的肌理与结构。本研究利用潍坊市城市农业产值数据和社会经济资料,构建了一套能定量分析影响潍坊市城市农业产值变化的驱动力及其内在驱动机制的指标体系。在时间尺度上,从经济、社会、资源、环境等4个方面初步筛选驱动力原始指标,然后通过相关性分析、主成分分析从原始指标中筛选出15个子驱动力,再利用偏最小二乘法(PLS)分析各驱动力对潍坊市城市农业产值增加量的影响程度,建立驱动机制模型。结果表明:对潍坊市城市农业产值增加量正影响程度较大的因子为农村居民人均纯收入、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、城市污水集中处理率,驱动指数分别为0.250 9、0.101 9、0.165 5、0.133 2,负影响程度较大的因子为农用塑料薄膜使用量,驱动指数为-0.214 6。该研究为城市农业发展提供了借鉴,并为相关研究提供了参考。

Driving Force Filtering and Driving Mechanism Analysis of Urban Agricultural Development in Weifang County,China

As an agricultural nation, the agricultural landscape is the basic appearance and existence in China, but the common existence often be neglected and contempted. As a new type of design and ideology, the development of urban agricultural landscape will greatly affect the texture and structure of the urban space. According to the urban agricultural production data and the socio-economic data of Weifang County, a set of evaluation index system that could analyze quantitatively the driving force of urban agricultural production changes and the internal drive mechanism was built. The original driving force indicators of economy, society, resources and environment from the time-series were chosen, and then 15 driving forces from the original driving forces by correlation analysis and principal component analysis were selected. The degree of influence was analyzed and the driving forces model by means of partial least squares(PLS)was built. The results demonstrated that the factors greatly influenced the increase of urban agricultural output value in Weifang County were per capita net income of rural residents, agricultural machinery total power, effective irrigation area, centralized treatment rate of urban sewage, with the driving exponents 0.250 9, 0.101 9, 0.165 5, 0.133 2, respectively. The negative influence factor was the use amount of agricultural plastic film and the driving exponent was-0.214 6. The research provides a reference for the development of urban agriculture, as well as a reference for the related study.