安徽省气候变化对水稻生产的影响及应对

收集了近30年来安徽气温和降水资料，统计分析了安徽省气候变化的特征，讨论了气候变化对水稻生产的影响。研究结果表明，近30年来安徽气温整体呈上升趋势，上世纪90年代以来增温明显。降水则表现为变率增大的趋势。当前全省处于气候高变率时期。气候变化对水稻生长期及水稻产量均有明显影响，气候变暖下双季稻生育期明显缩短，在一定程度上对水稻产量产生负面影响，极端气候事件对水稻生产产生了巨大影响。调整作物布局，加强极端气象灾害应对防范体系与能力建设是农业生产应对气候变化的重要途经。

Impact of Climatic Change on Rice Production and Response Strategies in Anhui Province

Using yearly statistical data, climate change features of Anhui Province was investigated and its impact on rice production was analyzed, the results showed that the mean annual temperature was in a uprising trend for the last 30 years, which was even faster since 1990s. Variability of precipitation was much increased and the overall climate condition was in a fluctuation status. Climatic change had some observable impacts on rice growth and yields of the province, including the reducing growing days for rice under double-cropping system. While warming had exerted adverse to extents varying with varieties and regions, extreme events could induce very intense hazards to rice growth and yields. To mitigate these impacts, spatial and temporary reallocation of crop cultivation, preventing drought and flood under extreme events should be adopted in agricultural development.