中国稻作与旱作生产的气象减产风险评价

本研究利用直线滑动平均模型对中国各省区1950-2006年旱作和稻作的趋势产量进行了模拟，计算出历年的气象产量，并采用减产率指标、减产率浮动性指标、高风险概率指标3个评价指标以及综合性指标进行了气象产量的气候变化减产风险评价，同时采用变异系数对我国各省产量波动状况进行了分析，并将各指标与年平均降水变率、年平均气温变率进行耦合分析。结果表明，旱作高减产风险和波动风险主要分布在华东和华南地区，而稻作则体现为由南向北风险逐渐增加。年平均降水变率和年平均气温变率高的地区，其水稻气象减产风险较大。由于人口增长和经济发展的压力，中国农业面l临着应对气象减产和保证粮食增产的双重压力。

Risk Assessment of Meteorological Yield Decline of Dryland Crops and Paddy Rice Against Climate Change in China

Assessment of the impact of climate change on cereals production of China in the past will bring much reference for mitigating climate change in agriculture in the future. In this study, linear moving average model was used to stimulate trend yield of dryland crops and rice production in China. Then a dataset of meteorological yield was compiled at provincial level. By calculating the indices, such as annual yield reduction rate, variability of yield decline and probability of high risk as well as an integrated risk index, an assessment of climate change in cereals production was conducted. In addition, coupling analysis between all indices and variability of mean annual precipitation and temperature was taken. The results showed that severe meteorological yield decline in dry farming occurred in extensive area of East China and South China, while the cut risk of rice product aggravate gradually from south to north across China. The meteorological yield reduction of rice in regions where existed high variabihty of average annual precipitation and temperature would show much high risks.