气候变化对中国农业生产的影响

未来气候变化下中国农业的稳定事关中国的长远持续发展，国内外气候变化研究界和农业气象研究界对气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的评估未有一致的认识。本文从农业科学角度讨论了气候变化对中国农业生产涉及的气象资源、土地资源、农业生物环境和生态系统的影响，并从作物生长和经济产量形成的角度讨论和分析了气候变化对中国种植业、养殖业不同产业行业的影响，气候变化中一些趋势性变化因不同作物和不同区域而异，例如温度和CO2浓度变化对农业生产的影响因不同作物和不同时相而异，反之，极端性气候／天气事件对农业不同行业的生产都显得危害很大，而气候变化中区域性干旱将成为我国未来农业生产愈来愈严重的挑战。气候变化对中国农业生产的影响甚为复杂，一些气候变化因子的实际影响还存在很大不确定性。当前，定量评价气候变化对中国农业生产的影响还存在困难。

Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production of China

Sustainability of crop production under climate change impacts has been much concerned as a focus for sustainable development of China＇s economy. There had been much uncertainty of the potential impacts of climate change on China＇s crop production in the literature of both climate change studies and agro-meteorological studies for the last years. On view of agricultural science, the potential overall impacts of climate change on crop growth and economic yield build-up was discussed in this paper taking into account the integrated potential impacts on land resource availability, biological environment and ecosystem behavior as well as meteorological resource for crop development. Both impacts on crop production and animal husbandry by climate changes in various geographical regions of China were addressed. The differentiated and mutual interaction of climate change trends varying with crops and regions were also considered. The adverse or beneficial effects of warming and increasing air CO2 concentration would mutual interact and offset, depending on crop types and their growing periods. However, extreme weather events which would be increasingly threatened under climate change conditions tended to pose hazards to all crops and in almost all sectors of agriculture. In particular, drought would be more extensive and frequent in regional scale, and would cause increasingly serious challenge for China＇s crop production in the future. Overall, the very complicated impacts of climate change on agricultural production would result in a much uncertainty of the actual effects on productivity yield and efficiency of production of China＇s agricultural production. Therefore, quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on China＇s agriculture would be still a challenging issue for the study of climate change and agriculture.