应对气候变化对未来中国农业生产影响的问题和挑战

通过整合农业科学界从不同行业产业角度和不同的影响方面对气候变化可能带来农业生产影响的分析资料，梳理和辨析了气候变化对农业生产影响的途径和机理，提出了气候变化对中国国家尺度农业影响的“发酵”效应假设：气候变化因子间相互作用与交错叠加，产业的传递和反馈，可能带来不利效应的严重放大；未来气候变化下中国农业面临的基本问题将是：农业技术进步的迟滞性和农业生产能力的波动性，稳定农业生产水平和粮食供应能力将愈来愈困难。讨论和建议了应对气候变化的若干国家战略，这些战略应基于气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的敏感性行业和地区，气候变化的突出性趋势的认识。防患和应对极端性气象灾害事件将成为应对气候变化对农业影响的首要任务，需要加强研究和技术储备，同时迫切需要新的组织和运行机制全面开展气候变化对中国农业生产影响的试验和技术开发研究。

Issues and Challenges on Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts on China＇s Future Agriculture

An integration of observation data of field experiments and statistical data of crop productivity changes with climate change in agriculture for the last decades were conducted, potential pathways and mechanisms of impacts of climate change conditions on agricultural production were elaborated in this discussion paper. A hypothesis of ＂effect fermentation＂, a mechanism of magnified adverse：impacts of climate change on the overall sector due to mutual interaction and overlapping of climate change conditions and land resource availability on crop growth and production which in turn, may exert secondary impacts on agro-food and animal husbandry resultant from decreased yield and efficiency. The future China＇s agriculture will face the great challenge of low response in productivity to technology application and of high instability of cropland productivity, thus giving rise to the increasing difficulty in sustaining crop productivity and food supply for the state. National strategy for mitigating climate change impacts on agriculture are suggested based on the susceptibility of production sectors and regions varying with the different trends of climate change conditions. Preventing and mitigating adverse or even hazardous impacts of extreme climate change events on agriculture should be given priority in the fight with climate change in agriculture. It is also recommended that research and technology development should be enhanced with long term monitoring and experiments with climate change impacts on agrosystems nationwide under improved coordination and funding mechanisms.